26813 Johnson Creek Rd · Crisfield, MD 21817

$89,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Townhouse public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1900 0.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOT WITH PUBLIC WATER & SEWER AVAILABLE. OLD HOME FIXER UPPER NEAR TOWN. PUBLIC BOAT RAMP. LG. POLE SHED ON PROPERTY 34X15. WATER/SEWER LINES NOT INSTALLED YET, WELL & SEPTIC ON PROPERTY.

Key facts

• Laminate floors
• Porcelain floor
• New roof

Tags

• CLOSE TO CHESAPEAKE BAY
• SEVERAL RENOVATIONS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• PORCELAIN FLOOR
• LAMINATE FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Single-entry level layout
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Flood vent foundation; Above-grade additional structures noted; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 115.12 x 181.70 x 116.04 x 173.10; Located outside city limits; Not in tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom on the main level
• Interior features: Two or more access exits

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($26/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 1.5% in Crisfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#199 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $89k implies a 345% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.64%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $48,853
• Equity at exit: $80,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $144,244
• Equity at exit: $172,907

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21817

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $633/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,244

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $27	+0% $2	+5% $-23	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-96	-5% $-47	+0% $2	+5% $51	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $25	base $2	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $89,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $633 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $801 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 26.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$633
• − Insurance: −$5,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable loss: −$1,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$288
• After-tax cash flow: $314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Crisfield

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #9181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,102

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 20% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.92%
• Current HPI: 292.866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+304.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $89,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $79,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-06-14 Sold (MLS) $20,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-05-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-03-19 Listed $22,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $633 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.