4229 Ny-81 · Greenville, NY 12083

$161,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,169 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 2.50 ac lot Est $187k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

2.5 Acres - Greenville, NY Opportunity awaits with this 2-bedroom ranch set on a beautiful and private 2.5-acre lot in the heart of Greenville, New York. This inviting home features a spacious living room highlighted by a cozy fireplace--perfect for relaxing evenings. Enjoy the warmth and character of hardwood floors throughout the main level, adding timeless appeal and easy maintenance. The functional layout offers comfortable one-level living with plenty of natural light. Outside, the expansive property provides endless possibilities--gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. A 2+ car garage offers ample space for vehicles, storage, or a workshop. Whether you'r

Key facts

• Private lot
• One-level living
• 2.5 acres

Tags

• 2.5 ACRES
• PRIVATE LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• EXPANSIVE PROPERTY
• 2+ CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage; Space for a total of 8 vehicles
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area plus finished below-grade space
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Lot about 2.5 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first level
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Cooling system present (other type)
• Interior features: Finished basement; Fireplace (1); Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $161k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $161k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.1% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#713 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Greenville Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #338 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $161k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $161,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.78%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4359 County Route 81	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,197 (+2%)	6mo	$192,000	$160	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $96,841
• Equity at exit: $145,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $278,280
• Equity at exit: $312,788

Cash invested: $45,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12083

• Home prices YoY: 16.0%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$844
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,998/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $161,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $188	+0% $142	+5% $97	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $73	+0% $142	+5% $211	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $183	base $142	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,250
• Closing costs: $4,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $161,000 Active
3. 2000-12-15
   soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,998 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,998 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,019
• − Property taxes: −$3,998
• − Insurance: −$805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$4,684
• Taxable loss: −$812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$195
• After-tax cash flow: $1,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612870
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $58,430
• Composite: 44.81/100
• National rank: #2740
• State rank: #338 of 590 in NY

Livability — Greenville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #713
• US rank: #13570

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,648
• Population (ZIP): 3,648

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.23%
• Current HPI: 378.8518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+83.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $161,000 Global MLS
• 2000-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,998 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.