1552 Swan Lake Cir · Dundee, FL 33838

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,383 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 223 Days on market

Built 2018 7,649 sqft lot $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

'Under construction' - The Amelia plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one story retreat located within the highly desirable Orlando area community of Ridge at Swan Lake. This home features an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, spacious granite/quartz countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. The Amelia incorporates a master suite complete with a massive walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping and irrigation. In addition, Ridge at Swan Lake offers residents beautiful nature views filled many beautiful lakes, walking/biking trails and is just minutes from fine dining, shopping, Disney World and LEGOLAND. The photos are of a model home.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Finished room
• 7,649 sq ft lot

Tags

• FINISHED ROOM
• COVERED PORCH
• WELL MAINTAINED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Solar energy present
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Artemis Lifestyles Services; Monthly HOA approximately $43.94; Semi-annual association fee; Association approval required; Pets allowed; Community street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as one-story
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,506 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $124,714
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $380,550
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,159/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,250

Max offer price $213,160

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-117	-5% $-191	+0% $-265	+5% $-338	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-416	-5% $-340	+0% $-265	+5% $-189	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-134	-0.5pp $-198	base $-265	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,850	$1.32	5d	1	0.20mi
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,049	$1.21	5d	1	0.30mi
403 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1630	$1,950	$1.20	25d	1	0.92mi
391 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,950	$1.10	25d	1	0.93mi
29 Coyer Rd Unit 2 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,000	$1.98	25d	1	1.44mi
217 Betty Ave S Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $259,900 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 210 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 206 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $259,900
16. 2026-05-18
    status Active
17. 2026-04-22
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-09
    price $254,900
19. 2026-03-04
    price $259,999
20. 2025-12-08
    price $264,900
21. 2025-11-02
    price $269,900
22. 2025-10-14
    listed $275,000 Active
23. 2018-12-03
    soldstatus $189,900
24. 2018-11-26
    soldstatus $189,900 Sold 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    'Under construction' - The Amelia plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one story retreat located within the highly desirable Orlando area community of Ridge at Swan Lake. This home features an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, spacious granite/quartz countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. The Amelia incorporates a master suite complete with a massive walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping and irrigation. In addition, Ridge at Swan Lake offers residents beautiful nature views filled many beautiful lakes, walking/biking trails and is just minutes from fine dining, shopping, Disney World and LEGOLAND. The photos are of a model home.

25. 2018-10-26
    status Pending 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    'Under construction' - The Amelia plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one story retreat located within the highly desirable Orlando area community of Ridge at Swan Lake. This home features an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, spacious granite/quartz countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. The Amelia incorporates a master suite complete with a massive walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping and irrigation. In addition, Ridge at Swan Lake offers residents beautiful nature views filled many beautiful lakes, walking/biking trails and is just minutes from fine dining, shopping, Disney World and LEGOLAND. The photos are of a model home.

26. 2018-10-12
    listed $190,900 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    'Under construction' - The Amelia plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one story retreat located within the highly desirable Orlando area community of Ridge at Swan Lake. This home features an open concept floor plan, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths complete with over $10,000 in upgrades including energy efficient appliances, spacious granite/quartz countertops, custom wood cabinets, brushed nickel hardware and an attached two car garage. The Amelia incorporates a master suite complete with a massive walk-in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping and irrigation. In addition, Ridge at Swan Lake offers residents beautiful nature views filled many beautiful lakes, walking/biking trails and is just minutes from fine dining, shopping, Disney World and LEGOLAND. The photos are of a model home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,159 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,159 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,159
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$7,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,870
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+36.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $254,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $259,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2018-11-26 Sold (MLS) $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-12 Listed $190,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+27.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,159 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.