69 Laurin St · Lake Monticello, VA 22902

$304,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,814 sqft · Townhouse · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $305k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Piper at Essence at Colonial Circle Townhomes, a brand-new townhome neighborhood with walking trails, recreation field, and low-maintenance living near outdoor recreation. This move-in ready Piper spreads 1,800 square feet across three levels with three bedrooms, two full baths, a powder room, and a one-car front-load garage. The lower level opens from the garage into a finished recreation room, giving the space real utility for gear, workouts, or winding down after a day outside. Up on the main level, the kitchen, dining, and living areas connect as one open floor, with an alternate kitchen layout that shifts the cooking space into a more social configuration. A deck off th

Key facts

• Privacy fence
• Composite deck
• Garage

Tags

• FINISHED RECREATION ROOM
• COMPOSITE DECK
• PRIVACY FENCE
• ALTERNATE KITCHEN LAYOUT
• STACKED WASHER AND DRYER
• GE ELECTRIC APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $304,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family property (The Piper plan)
• Exterior features: Spec inventory new construction (The Piper plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 2 half bathrooms (3 total listed)
• Interior features: Living area of 1814

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $304k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $245,477 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Saxon St #106	0.11mi	3/3.0	1,833 (+1%)	1mo	$299,990	$164	92
47 Laurin St #31	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,800 (-1%)	2mo	$314,990	$175	90
41 Laurin St #29	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,833 (+1%)	1mo	$289,990	$158	90
114 Saxon St	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,800 (-1%)	4mo	$312,000	$173	88
110 Saxon St	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,866 (+3%)	2mo	$299,000	$160	86
55 Laurin St #32	0.11mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,866 (+3%)	0mo	$315,585	$169	83
103 Oldfield Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,814 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$165	82
130 Saxon St Lot 73	0.13mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,866 (+3%)	1mo	$312,590	$168	82
97 Oldfield Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,814 (0%)	3mo	$314,035	$173	82
99 Oldfield Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,800 (-1%)	3mo	$297,490	$165	81
43 Laurin St Lot 30	0.13mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,866 (+3%)	2mo	$311,990	$167	81
120 Saxon St	0.16mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,866 (+3%)	1mo	$328,830	$176	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-60,819
• Equity at exit: $45,327

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-71,350
• Equity at exit: $26,284

Cash invested: $85,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22902

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,560/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,659

Max offer price $280,615

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-57	+0% $-162	+5% $-267	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-356	-5% $-259	+0% $-162	+5% $-65	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-84	base $-162	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,000
• Closing costs: $9,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Laurin St Cunningham, VA	4.0	3.5	1800	$2,350	$1.31	14d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $304,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $304,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $304,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,029
• − Property taxes: −$4,560
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − Depreciation: −$8,844
• Taxable loss: −$7,208
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,730
• After-tax cash flow: $-209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready townhome is in good condition with a modern and inviting interior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can make the home more attractive and increase its value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can make the home more attractive and increase its value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 23,486
• Household income: $93,463
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -372.57%
• Current HPI: 295.9918
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B