6 Villa Bella Ct · Holiday City South, NJ 08757

$269,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1986 5,662 sqft lot Est $324k · 17% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great cul-de-sac location with private back, convenient to shopping. This Capri home has had all windows replaced, updated bathrooms with large walk-in shower in master bath, newer countertop, backsplash and floor in kitchen and newer a/c, roof and HW heater. A great home in a great location.

Key facts

• Living dining area
• One-level living
• Open floorplan

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LIVING DINING AREA
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Holiday City South); Quarterly HOA fee of 150 (includes common area); Community amenities: Pool, Clubhouse, Common Area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Capri; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Crawl space basement

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: AC units; Light fixtures
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.9% in Holiday City South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#302 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,450/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $270k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,967 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 Davenport Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,328 (0%)	1mo	$251,500	$189	95
11 Selkirk Ave	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,328 (0%)	1mo	$410,000	$309	85
18 Pulaski Blvd	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,364 (+3%)	1mo	$290,000	$213	77
73 San Carlos St	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$330,000	$268	74
5 Templeton St	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$300,000	$244	73
165 Pulaski Blvd	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,324 (-0%)	0mo	$320,000	$242	72
6 Speighstown Pl	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	0mo	$295,000	$239	68
16 Calalou Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$390,000	$317	66
115 San Carlos St	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	1mo	$360,000	$292	65
63 Eton Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,331 (+0%)	1mo	$260,000	$195	64
49 Eton Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,318 (-1%)	1mo	$315,200	$239	64
8 Newbury Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,509 (+14%)	1mo	$420,000	$278	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-38,127
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-25,887
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,227/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,338

Max offer price $269,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $164	+0% $88	+5% $11	+10% $-65
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-9	+0% $88	+5% $185	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $157	base $88	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Mayaquez Ln Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1364	$2,100	$1.54	0d	1	0.41mi
43 Stockport Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1559	$2,500	$1.60	0d	1	0.64mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	0d	1	0.78mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	0d	1	0.94mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	0d	1	1.32mi
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	8d	1	1.32mi
146 Attison Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1376	$2,500	$1.82	8d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,999 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,999 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,999 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,999 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,999 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,999 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,999 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $269,999 Active 738-char remark
17. 2026-02-06
    status Pending
18. 2025-11-21
    listed $299,900 Active
19. 2011-03-30
    soldstatus $110,000
20. 2011-03-21
    soldstatus $110,000

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Great cul-de-sac location with private back, convenient to shopping. This Capri home has had all windows replaced, updated bathrooms with large walk-in shower in master bath, newer countertop, backsplash and floor in kitchen and newer a/c, roof and HW heater. A great home in a great location.

21. 2010-10-08
    listed $119,000

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Great cul-de-sac location with private back, convenient to shopping. This Capri home has had all windows replaced, updated bathrooms with large walk-in shower in master bath, newer countertop, backsplash and floor in kitchen and newer a/c, roof and HW heater. A great home in a great location.

22. 1999-04-14
    soldstatus $95,000
23. 1999-03-25
    soldstatus $95,000
24. 1999-02-23
    historical
25. 1998-08-30
    listed $99,900
26. 1986-09-08
    soldstatus $75,490

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,227 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,975 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,748/yr (+$146/mo · 54.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$3,227
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$3,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$831
• After-tax cash flow: $1,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City South

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #9268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City South, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+257.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $269,999 MOMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $299,900 MOMLS
• 2011-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-21 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MOMLS
• 2010-10-08 Listed $119,000 MOMLS
• 1999-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-25 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MOMLS
• 1999-02-23 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-08-30 Listed $99,900 MOMLS
• 1986-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $75,490 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,227 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.