106 E Moss Mill Rd Unit T38 · Smithville, NJ 08205

$219,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 242 Days on market

Built 2019 Est $221k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity at Swan Lake! Just 6 years young, this well-kept 2 bed, 1 bath home is move-in ready. Enjoy all the amenities of this unique community—NOT a 55+ neighborhood. Seller may include some furnishings for an additional cost. . Close to Historic Smithville Village for shopping, dining & festivals. Centrally located with easy access to beaches, fine dining & entertainment.

Key facts

• Built 2019
• Listed 242 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area approximately 960 (estimated)
• Financial info: Land lease interest with annual land lease payment (land lease years remaining: 100)
• HOA & community: Association amenities include fitness center and water/lake privileges; Association fees cover snow removal, common area maintenance, health club, management, road maintenance, water and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well / shared well water; Shared septic; Electric available; Natural gas available; Cable TV available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide; Single-story (entry level main); Metal roof; Combination construction
• Construction: Slab foundation; Above grade and below grade structures noted; Year built (estimated)
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Trees/wooded; Fishing available; Not in a federal flood zone; Property manager present; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; size/weight restrictions)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven (single); Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (natural gas); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Upgraded countertops; Drywall; 9' plus ceilings; Electric fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($597/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#402 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #319 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roland Rogers Elementary School (math 17% / reading 43%, grade F, #721 of 1,303 statewide, top 56%, 549 students, 52% FRL); Galloway Township Middle School (math 19% / reading 47%, grade F, #271 of 431 statewide, top 64%, 726 students, 47% FRL); Absegami High School (math 18% / reading 48%, grade F, #259 of 399 statewide, top 66%, 1,125 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $193,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 E Moss Mill Rd Unit T38	0.00mi	2/1.0	960 (0%)	0mo	$210,000	$219	100
106 E Moss Mill Rd Unit T36	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+4%)	18mo	$229,900	$230	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-32,435
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,043
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08205

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $126	+0% $50	+5% $-26	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-29	+0% $50	+5% $128	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $106	base $50	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Iroquois Dr Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	855	$1,800	$2.11	15d	1	0.83mi
31 Arapaho Pl Unit 1 Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	855	$2,100	$2.46	15d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-12-01
   price $219,900
4. 2025-09-01
   listed $222,900 Active
5. 2025-08-29
   historical $222,900
6. 2025-08-28
   historical
7. 2025-04-11
   price $235,000
8. 2025-03-20
   price $238,000
9. 2025-02-25
   listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$741
• After-tax cash flow: $1,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District
• NCES district ID: 3406060
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,324
• Composite: 28.94/100
• National rank: #6629
• State rank: #319 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #13992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B- Employment B- Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 28,877
• Household income: $93,370
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.12%
• Current HPI: 315.4814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $219,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $222,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-29 Coming Soon $222,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $238,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS