306 Dyer Cir · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 948 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1970 9,757 sqft lot $111/sqft · at area comps Est $103k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**Multiple offers received. Please submit highest and best offer no later than Sunday May 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM. Seller will review all offers after the deadline. Investor Special! Bring all offers! Lake-view property located just across the street from Cedar Creek Lake! This metal home features a flexible floor plan with 1 bedroom plus a second living area that could function as a 2nd bedroom. The home includes 1 full bath, a fenced yard, and a garage for parking or additional storage. Enjoy peaceful water views from the property without the higher price point of direct waterfront homes. Sits in a quiet neighborhood convenient to Gun Barrel City for shopping and restaurants. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable option near the lake with potential to customize and make it their own. There is new flooring throughout the home. Perfect as an investment for rentals or full time residence. Possible owner financing available! Being sold as is.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• New flooring
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• LAKE-VIEW PROPERTY
• FENCED YARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.21%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,098
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 1.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,948
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $18,543
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $479/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $803

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	43d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 960-char remark

   Show marketing remark (960 chars)

   **Multiple offers received. Please submit highest and best offer no later than Sunday May 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM. Seller will review all offers after the deadline. Investor Special! Bring all offers! Lake-view property located just across the street from Cedar Creek Lake! This metal home features a flexible floor plan with 1 bedroom plus a second living area that could function as a 2nd bedroom. The home includes 1 full bath, a fenced yard, and a garage for parking or additional storage. Enjoy peaceful water views from the property without the higher price point of direct waterfront homes. Sits in a quiet neighborhood convenient to Gun Barrel City for shopping and restaurants. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable option near the lake with potential to customize and make it their own. There is new flooring throughout the home. Perfect as an investment for rentals or full time residence. Possible owner financing available! Being sold as is.

2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Option Contract 960-char remark

   Show marketing remark (960 chars)

   **Multiple offers received. Please submit highest and best offer no later than Sunday May 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM. Seller will review all offers after the deadline. Investor Special! Bring all offers! Lake-view property located just across the street from Cedar Creek Lake! This metal home features a flexible floor plan with 1 bedroom plus a second living area that could function as a 2nd bedroom. The home includes 1 full bath, a fenced yard, and a garage for parking or additional storage. Enjoy peaceful water views from the property without the higher price point of direct waterfront homes. Sits in a quiet neighborhood convenient to Gun Barrel City for shopping and restaurants. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable option near the lake with potential to customize and make it their own. There is new flooring throughout the home. Perfect as an investment for rentals or full time residence. Possible owner financing available! Being sold as is.

3. 2026-05-01
   status Active 960-char remark

   Show marketing remark (960 chars)

   **Multiple offers received. Please submit highest and best offer no later than Sunday May 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM. Seller will review all offers after the deadline. Investor Special! Bring all offers! Lake-view property located just across the street from Cedar Creek Lake! This metal home features a flexible floor plan with 1 bedroom plus a second living area that could function as a 2nd bedroom. The home includes 1 full bath, a fenced yard, and a garage for parking or additional storage. Enjoy peaceful water views from the property without the higher price point of direct waterfront homes. Sits in a quiet neighborhood convenient to Gun Barrel City for shopping and restaurants. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable option near the lake with potential to customize and make it their own. There is new flooring throughout the home. Perfect as an investment for rentals or full time residence. Possible owner financing available! Being sold as is.

4. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 960-char remark

   Show marketing remark (960 chars)

   **Multiple offers received. Please submit highest and best offer no later than Sunday May 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM. Seller will review all offers after the deadline. Investor Special! Bring all offers! Lake-view property located just across the street from Cedar Creek Lake! This metal home features a flexible floor plan with 1 bedroom plus a second living area that could function as a 2nd bedroom. The home includes 1 full bath, a fenced yard, and a garage for parking or additional storage. Enjoy peaceful water views from the property without the higher price point of direct waterfront homes. Sits in a quiet neighborhood convenient to Gun Barrel City for shopping and restaurants. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable option near the lake with potential to customize and make it their own. There is new flooring throughout the home. Perfect as an investment for rentals or full time residence. Possible owner financing available! Being sold as is.

5. 2026-04-07
   historical Active Option Contract 960-char remark

   Show marketing remark (960 chars)

   **Multiple offers received. Please submit highest and best offer no later than Sunday May 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM. Seller will review all offers after the deadline. Investor Special! Bring all offers! Lake-view property located just across the street from Cedar Creek Lake! This metal home features a flexible floor plan with 1 bedroom plus a second living area that could function as a 2nd bedroom. The home includes 1 full bath, a fenced yard, and a garage for parking or additional storage. Enjoy peaceful water views from the property without the higher price point of direct waterfront homes. Sits in a quiet neighborhood convenient to Gun Barrel City for shopping and restaurants. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable option near the lake with potential to customize and make it their own. There is new flooring throughout the home. Perfect as an investment for rentals or full time residence. Possible owner financing available! Being sold as is.

6. 2026-04-01
   price $105,000 960-char remark

   Show marketing remark (960 chars)

   **Multiple offers received. Please submit highest and best offer no later than Sunday May 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM. Seller will review all offers after the deadline. Investor Special! Bring all offers! Lake-view property located just across the street from Cedar Creek Lake! This metal home features a flexible floor plan with 1 bedroom plus a second living area that could function as a 2nd bedroom. The home includes 1 full bath, a fenced yard, and a garage for parking or additional storage. Enjoy peaceful water views from the property without the higher price point of direct waterfront homes. Sits in a quiet neighborhood convenient to Gun Barrel City for shopping and restaurants. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable option near the lake with potential to customize and make it their own. There is new flooring throughout the home. Perfect as an investment for rentals or full time residence. Possible owner financing available! Being sold as is.

7. 2026-03-09
   price $119,000 960-char remark

   Show marketing remark (960 chars)

   **Multiple offers received. Please submit highest and best offer no later than Sunday May 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM. Seller will review all offers after the deadline. Investor Special! Bring all offers! Lake-view property located just across the street from Cedar Creek Lake! This metal home features a flexible floor plan with 1 bedroom plus a second living area that could function as a 2nd bedroom. The home includes 1 full bath, a fenced yard, and a garage for parking or additional storage. Enjoy peaceful water views from the property without the higher price point of direct waterfront homes. Sits in a quiet neighborhood convenient to Gun Barrel City for shopping and restaurants. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable option near the lake with potential to customize and make it their own. There is new flooring throughout the home. Perfect as an investment for rentals or full time residence. Possible owner financing available! Being sold as is.

8. 2026-03-01
   listed $136,000 Active 960-char remark

   Show marketing remark (960 chars)

   **Multiple offers received. Please submit highest and best offer no later than Sunday May 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM. Seller will review all offers after the deadline. Investor Special! Bring all offers! Lake-view property located just across the street from Cedar Creek Lake! This metal home features a flexible floor plan with 1 bedroom plus a second living area that could function as a 2nd bedroom. The home includes 1 full bath, a fenced yard, and a garage for parking or additional storage. Enjoy peaceful water views from the property without the higher price point of direct waterfront homes. Sits in a quiet neighborhood convenient to Gun Barrel City for shopping and restaurants. Ideal for buyers seeking an affordable option near the lake with potential to customize and make it their own. There is new flooring throughout the home. Perfect as an investment for rentals or full time residence. Possible owner financing available! Being sold as is.

9. 2026-02-28
   historical
10. 2026-02-16
    price $141,000
11. 2026-01-18
    price $146,000
12. 2025-12-30
    price $151,000
13. 2025-10-22
    price $156,000
14. 2025-09-11
    price $176,000
15. 2025-08-28
    listed $186,000 Active
16. 2017-09-08
    historical
17. 2017-06-13
    price $59,000
18. 2017-05-01
    price $63,000
19. 2017-03-15
    price $69,000
20. 2016-11-10
    listed $73,000 Active
21. 2015-10-14
    soldstatus
22. 2015-10-09
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2015-10-04
    status Pending
24. 2015-08-03
    listed $40,000 Active
25. 2015-05-26
    historical
26. 2015-05-09
    price $40,000
27. 2014-12-26
    listed $46,750 Active
28. 2001-06-28
    soldstatus
29. 2001-04-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $479 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,443/yr (+$120/mo · 301.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$479
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$698
• After-tax cash flow: $3,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payne Springs, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+124.6% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $136,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $141,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $146,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $151,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $156,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $176,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $186,000 NTREIS
• 2017-09-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-06-13 Price Changed $59,000 NTREIS
• 2017-05-01 Price Changed $63,000 NTREIS
• 2017-03-15 Price Changed $69,000 NTREIS
• 2016-11-10 Listed $73,000 NTREIS
• 2015-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2015-10-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-08-03 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2015-05-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2015-05-09 Price Changed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2014-12-26 Listed $46,750 NTREIS
• 2001-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $479 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.