126 W 31st St · Covington, KY 41015

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1893 3,300 sqft lot Est $255k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So much character to appreciate in this beautiful home!! New Carpet installed in July. Fenced in backyard, covered porch, and spacious rooms along with so much more to enjoy and appreciate in this home!!! Has an awesome bonus room upstairs that could be used as a 3rd bedroom or office!

Key facts

• Private deck
• Easy access to i-75
• Refreshed kitchen

Tags

• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MANAGEABLE YARD SPACE
• PRIVATE DECK
• EASY ACCESS TO I-75
• LOCAL PARKS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family house; One and one-half stories; Existing structure
• Construction: Built in 1893; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 33 x 100 (0.08 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave (stainless steel); Refrigerator; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (9 x 14); Second bedroom (13 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Brick fireplace; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ninth District Elementary (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 341 students, 87% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL).
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $98k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,726 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.18%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3112 Rogers St	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,636 (-4%)	0mo	$245,000	$150	87
123 W 34th St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-13%)	3mo	$230,000	$156	67
2717 Iowa Ave	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,599 (-6%)	8mo	$264,900	$166	67
3150 Beech Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (-10%)	2mo	$290,000	$190	66
3929 Lincoln Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+2%)	4mo	$259,900	$150	64
3174 Rosina Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+8%)	6mo	$210,000	$114	63
510 W Southern Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,488 (-12%)	2mo	$215,000	$144	62
3905 Locke St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,605 (-6%)	4mo	$250,000	$156	62
3914 Church St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,800 (+6%)	0mo	$295,000	$164	60
116 E 42nd St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+3%)	1mo	$140,000	$80	59
36 E 41st St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,920 (+13%)	1mo	$262,000	$136	47
3501 Carlisle Ave	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+12%)	6mo	$220,000	$116	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,203
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $50,057
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41015

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,343/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $554	+0% $513	+5% $472	+10% $431
Rent	-10% $369	-5% $441	+0% $513	+5% $586	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $586	-0.5pp $550	base $513	+0.5pp $476	+1.0pp $438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2307 Center St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	9d	1	0.65mi
3918 Glenn Ave Unit 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,449	$1.07	21d	1	0.82mi
2220 Cityscape Dr Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,985	$2.13	3d	9	0.99mi
2030 Mackoy St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1598	$1,779	$1.11	6d	1	1.04mi
1927 Scott St Apt 1 Covington, KY	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,100	$1.13	21d	1	1.07mi
1222 E Henry Clay Ave Fort Wright, KY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,548	$1.29	25d	1	1.08mi
400 Lakeview Dr #5 Wilder, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	4d	1	1.32mi
1700 Aspen Pines Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1420	$2,365	$1.67	3d	14	1.43mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $144,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $154,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
7. 2026-05-01
   listed $154,900 Active
8. 2021-02-23
   soldstatus $98,000
9. 2021-02-16
   soldstatus $98,000 Closed 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   So much character to appreciate in this beautiful home!! New Carpet installed in July. Fenced in backyard, covered porch, and spacious rooms along with so much more to enjoy and appreciate in this home!!! Has an awesome bonus room upstairs that could be used as a 3rd bedroom or office!

10. 2021-01-12
    status Pending 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    So much character to appreciate in this beautiful home!! New Carpet installed in July. Fenced in backyard, covered porch, and spacious rooms along with so much more to enjoy and appreciate in this home!!! Has an awesome bonus room upstairs that could be used as a 3rd bedroom or office!

11. 2021-01-05
    listed $130,000 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    So much character to appreciate in this beautiful home!! New Carpet installed in July. Fenced in backyard, covered porch, and spacious rooms along with so much more to enjoy and appreciate in this home!!! Has an awesome bonus room upstairs that could be used as a 3rd bedroom or office!

12. 2013-02-07
    soldstatus $18,500 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    Great street. Large 3 bedroom home. Sold As Is. Tenants did damge to home. Great potential.

13. 2013-01-03
    listed $24,900 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    Great street. Large 3 bedroom home. Sold As Is. Tenants did damge to home. Great potential.

14. 2008-12-23
    historical
15. 2008-06-23
    listed $80,900
16. 2008-05-30
    historical
17. 2007-11-27
    listed $80,900
18. 2007-08-31
    historical
19. 2007-04-26
    listed $80,900
20. 2007-04-26
    historical
21. 2006-10-30
    listed $80,900
22. 2006-07-31
    historical
23. 2006-01-31
    listed $83,900
24. 2005-12-31
    historical
25. 2004-04-09
    listed $84,900
26. 2003-09-06
    historical
27. 2002-11-08
    listed $87,900
28. 2002-09-30
    historical
29. 2001-12-28
    listed $87,900
30. 2001-09-30
    historical
31. 2001-02-28
    listed $84,900
32. 2000-03-25
    historical
33. 1999-11-02
    listed $69,900
34. 1999-06-08
    soldstatus $44,500
35. 1999-06-07
    soldstatus $44,500
36. 1999-04-12
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,343 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,343 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,343
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $4,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$971
• After-tax cash flow: $5,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• City population: 34,373
• Population (ZIP): 20,396

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.37%
• Current HPI: 203.7263
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+210.4% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $154,900 NKMLS
• 2021-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-16 Sold (MLS) $98,000 NKMLS
• 2021-01-12 Pending — NKMLS
• 2021-01-05 Listed $130,000 NKMLS
• 2013-02-07 Sold (MLS) $18,500 NKMLS
• 2013-01-03 Listed $24,900 NKMLS
• 2008-12-23 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2008-06-23 Listed $80,900 NKMLS
• 2008-05-30 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-11-27 Listed $80,900 NKMLS
• 2007-08-31 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-04-26 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2007-04-26 Listed $80,900 NKMLS
• 2006-10-30 Listed $80,900 NKMLS
• 2006-07-31 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2006-01-31 Listed $83,900 NKMLS
• 2005-12-31 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2004-04-09 Listed $84,900 NKMLS
• 2003-09-06 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2002-11-08 Listed $87,900 NKMLS
• 2002-09-30 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2001-12-28 Listed $87,900 NKMLS
• 2001-09-30 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2001-02-28 Listed $84,900 NKMLS
• 2000-03-25 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 1999-11-02 Listed $69,900 NKMLS
• 1999-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records
• 1999-06-07 Sold (MLS) $44,500 NKMLS
• 1999-04-12 Listed $49,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,343 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.