209-15 18th Ave Unit 3E · New York, NY 11360

$309,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Condo · 43 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, Spacious 1 Bedroom Apartment With Dining Area Off The Kitchen Large Living Room, Full Bath In The Much Coveted Bay Terrace. The Bay Terrace Shopping Center Is Close By. Express Bus To Manhattan, Close To The Clearview Golf Course And The Throgs Neck Bridge., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1960
• Listed 43 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($541/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $309k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,017 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $44,403
• Equity at exit: $143,477

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $148,917
• Equity at exit: $224,709

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11360

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,635/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,703

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Bay Club Dr Unit 21W Bayside, NY	1.0	1.0	762	$3,100	$4.07	11d	1	0.29mi
2 Bay Club Dr Bayside, NY	1.0	1.0	780	$4,000	$5.13	24d	1	0.31mi
23-45 Corporal Kennedy St Unit 1 Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	24d	1	0.33mi
20933 26th Ave Unit 1C Bayside, NY	1.0	1.5	800	$3,000	$3.75	24d	1	0.35mi
209-21 26th Ave Unit TB Bayside, NY	1.0	1.0	955	$2,850	$2.98	19d	1	0.36mi
1816 Bell Blvd Bayside, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	24d	1	0.36mi
16-05 Bell Blvd Unit 1st Floor Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,400	$3.43	24d	1	0.38mi
206-14 Emily Rd Unit 42L Bayside, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,700	$3.86	24d	1	0.46mi
29-04 204th St Unit 1Floor Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	19d	1	0.72mi
1011 162nd St Whitestone, NY	1.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	19d	1	1.09mi
15719 26th Ave Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,850	$3.35	22d	1	1.29mi
36-26 192nd St #2 Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	875	$3,000	$3.43	7d	1	1.36mi
194-20 39th Ave Unit A Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$2,250	$2.50	24d	1	1.39mi
1001 154th St Whitestone, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$3,300	$3.67	24d	1	1.41mi
41-20 210th St Unit 1 Flushing, NY	1.0	1.0	1030	$2,350	$2.28	24d	1	1.42mi
214-16 40th Ave Unit 3rd Floor Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,800	$3.11	24d	1	1.43mi
207-07 42nd Ave Unit 2 Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	1395	$3,900	$2.80	3d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-09
   listed $309,000 Active
3. 2025-09-29
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-29
   historical
5. 2025-08-11
   listed $309,000 Active
6. 2017-12-06
   soldstatus $175,000 Closed 318-char remark

   Show marketing remark (318 chars)

   Beautiful, Spacious 1 Bedroom Apartment With Dining Area Off The Kitchen Large Living Room, Full Bath In The Much Coveted Bay Terrace. The Bay Terrace Shopping Center Is Close By. Express Bus To Manhattan, Close To The Clearview Golf Course And The Throgs Neck Bridge., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent

7. 2017-10-19
   status Under Contract 318-char remark

   Show marketing remark (318 chars)

   Beautiful, Spacious 1 Bedroom Apartment With Dining Area Off The Kitchen Large Living Room, Full Bath In The Much Coveted Bay Terrace. The Bay Terrace Shopping Center Is Close By. Express Bus To Manhattan, Close To The Clearview Golf Course And The Throgs Neck Bridge., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent

8. 2017-09-26
   price $180,000 318-char remark

   Show marketing remark (318 chars)

   Beautiful, Spacious 1 Bedroom Apartment With Dining Area Off The Kitchen Large Living Room, Full Bath In The Much Coveted Bay Terrace. The Bay Terrace Shopping Center Is Close By. Express Bus To Manhattan, Close To The Clearview Golf Course And The Throgs Neck Bridge., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent

9. 2017-08-13
   listed $190,000 New 318-char remark

   Show marketing remark (318 chars)

   Beautiful, Spacious 1 Bedroom Apartment With Dining Area Off The Kitchen Large Living Room, Full Bath In The Much Coveted Bay Terrace. The Bay Terrace Shopping Center Is Close By. Express Bus To Manhattan, Close To The Clearview Golf Course And The Throgs Neck Bridge., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$4,635
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,650
• − Management: −$2,650
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$4,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,117
• After-tax cash flow: $1,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 19,469
• Household income: $98,875
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 496.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Asian 29% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Chinese 14% Other Indo-European 11% Korean 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 204.1422
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+62.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Listed $309,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Listed $309,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-06 Sold (MLS) $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-26 Price Changed $180,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-13 Listed $190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid