13 Chanticlare Dr · Flower Hill, NY 11030

$3,488,000

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 7,236 sqft · SingleFamily · 283 Days on market

Built 1980 1.28 ac lot $482/sqft · 30% below area Est $4978k · 30% under ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a sprawling 1.28-acre property, this 7,200+ square-foot estate stands as one of Flower Hill’s most architecturally distinctive residences, set behind a gated courtyard and surrounded by lush, mature landscaping. The striking brick exterior and thoughtful design create an unforgettable first impression. Offering 5 bedrooms and 5.5 bathrooms, the home features a spacious main-level primary suite with dual spa-like bathrooms and two walk-in closets. The interior showcases generous proportions, soaring ceilings, and oversized windows that flood the home with natural light, while also presenting an exceptional opportunity for a buyer to personalize and update to their taste. The expansive lower level—approximately 4,000 additional square feet—offers 10-foot ceilings and direct access to the gardens, allowing for flexible living and entertaining spaces. Additional highlights include 4-zone central air conditioning, 4-zone gas heating, central vacuum, three fireplaces, an updated irrigation system, and a seamless connection between indoor and outdoor living. The terrace serves as a true focal point, featuring intricate tile work, classic balustrades, sculpted statuary, and vibrant seasonal plantings—ideal for entertaining or quiet enjoyment. With its scale, design, and setting, this home offers a remarkable foundation and an exciting canvas for modern updates.

Key facts

• Two walk-in closets
• Gated courtyard
• 1.28 acre lot

Tags

• GATED COURTYARD
• LUSH MATURE LANDSCAPING
• STRIKING BRICK EXTERIOR
• MAIN-LEVEL PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL SPA-LIKE BATHROOMS
• TWO WALK-IN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $3.49M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-52k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.86M (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.50M (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.50M (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Port Washington Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #69 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $212k of equity ($24k loan paydown + $188k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$339k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.07M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,500,000 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $4,977,792
• List price: $3,488,000
• Delta: -29.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Knolls Ln	0.16mi	5/6.5	6,500 (-10%)	8mo	$4,500,000	$692	65
220 Elderfields Rd	0.43mi	5/5.0	6,412 (-11%)	2mo	$5,850,000	$912	57
508 Manhasset Woods Rd	0.48mi	5/4.5	6,800 (-6%)	12mo	$5,750,000	$846	54
9 Walter Ln	0.60mi	6/5.5 (+1)	7,000 (-3%)	21mo	$4,645,000	$664	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $603,328
• Equity at exit: $2,057,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $2,030,948
• Equity at exit: $3,620,643

Cash invested: $976,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11030

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,291
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,360 /mo · $52,320/yr
• Insurance: −$1,453
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $-4,355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $30,512

Max offer price $2,857,856

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $872,000
• Closing costs: $104,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Beacon Hill Rd Port Washington, NY	5.0	3.5	7015	$25,000	$3.56	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,488,000 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,488,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,488,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,488,000 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,488,000 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,488,000 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,488,000 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,488,000 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $3,488,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,488,000 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,488,000 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,488,000 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,488,000 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-04-14
    price $3,488,000 1411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1411 chars)

    Situated on a sprawling 1.28-acre property, this 7,200+ square-foot estate stands as one of Flower Hill’s most architecturally distinctive residences, set behind a gated courtyard and surrounded by lush, mature landscaping. The striking brick exterior and thoughtful design create an unforgettable first impression. Offering 5 bedrooms and 5.5 bathrooms, the home features a spacious main-level primary suite with dual spa-like bathrooms and two walk-in closets. The interior showcases generous proportions, soaring ceilings, and oversized windows that flood the home with natural light, while also presenting an exceptional opportunity for a buyer to personalize and update to their taste. The expansive lower level—approximately 4,000 additional square feet—offers 10-foot ceilings and direct access to the gardens, allowing for flexible living and entertaining spaces. Additional highlights include 4-zone central air conditioning, 4-zone gas heating, central vacuum, three fireplaces, an updated irrigation system, and a seamless connection between indoor and outdoor living. The terrace serves as a true focal point, featuring intricate tile work, classic balustrades, sculpted statuary, and vibrant seasonal plantings—ideal for entertaining or quiet enjoyment. With its scale, design, and setting, this home offers a remarkable foundation and an exciting canvas for modern updates.

15. 2025-09-08
    listed $3,998,000 Active 1411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1411 chars)

    Situated on a sprawling 1.28-acre property, this 7,200+ square-foot estate stands as one of Flower Hill’s most architecturally distinctive residences, set behind a gated courtyard and surrounded by lush, mature landscaping. The striking brick exterior and thoughtful design create an unforgettable first impression. Offering 5 bedrooms and 5.5 bathrooms, the home features a spacious main-level primary suite with dual spa-like bathrooms and two walk-in closets. The interior showcases generous proportions, soaring ceilings, and oversized windows that flood the home with natural light, while also presenting an exceptional opportunity for a buyer to personalize and update to their taste. The expansive lower level—approximately 4,000 additional square feet—offers 10-foot ceilings and direct access to the gardens, allowing for flexible living and entertaining spaces. Additional highlights include 4-zone central air conditioning, 4-zone gas heating, central vacuum, three fireplaces, an updated irrigation system, and a seamless connection between indoor and outdoor living. The terrace serves as a true focal point, featuring intricate tile work, classic balustrades, sculpted statuary, and vibrant seasonal plantings—ideal for entertaining or quiet enjoyment. With its scale, design, and setting, this home offers a remarkable foundation and an exciting canvas for modern updates.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$195,382
• − Property taxes: −$52,320
• − Insurance: −$17,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$101,469
• Taxable loss: −$114,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27,507
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Washington Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3623580
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $108,016
• Composite: 67.83/100
• National rank: #362
• State rank: #69 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flower Hill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #3270

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flower Hill, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,703

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Chinese 9% Other Indo-European 8% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Current HPI: 288.8947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $3,488,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Listed $3,998,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid