123 Carmel St · New Haven, CT 06511

$448,000

12 bd · 4.8 ba · 5,313 sqft · MultiFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 1920 3,920 sqft lot $84/sqft · 26% below area Est $606k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Distressed value-add multifamily opportunity in a prime New Haven location just minutes from Downtown and Yale University. Currently configured as a 4-family with approved plans and permits in place for conversion to a 5-unit residential building, offering significant upside potential. All major approvals have been secured, including zoning variance and building/fire department approvals. The proposed layout includes a mix of 1-bedroom, 3-bedroom, and large 4-bedroom units. Full interior and exterior renovation required. No on-site parking. Strong rental market supported by proximity to Yale, public transportation, and major highways. Rent comps available for both 4-unit and 5-unit scenarios. All the hard work is done. Just build and cash flow!

Key facts

• Zoning variance
• Strong rental market
• Proximity to yale

Tags

• MULTIFAMILY OPPORTUNITY
• APPROVED PLANS AND PERMITS
• ZONING VARIANCE
• STRONG RENTAL MARKET
• PROXIMITY TO YALE
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.2-bath units multifamily listed at $448k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($52k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $448k).
• Recommended offer: $421k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,387/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $125k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($421k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $421,120 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.32%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $605,909
• List price: $448,000
• Delta: -26.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Shelton Ave	0.41mi	12/6.0	5,661 (+6%)	3mo	$690,000	$122	62
516 Dixwell Ave	0.57mi	12/4.0	4,658 (-12%)	6mo	$740,000	$159	44
1470 Chapel St	0.66mi	12/6.0	5,632 (+6%)	14mo	$890,000	$158	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $198,907
• Equity at exit: $66,798

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $512,729
• Equity at exit: $38,735

Cash invested: $125,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06511

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 15.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,387 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,349
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$560 /mo · $6,720/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,971
• Net cashflow: $4,320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,919

Max offer price $448,000

Occupancy floor 49%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	1.2	$9,388
Total (4 units)			$9,387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,000
• Closing costs: $13,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $448,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $448,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $448,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $448,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $448,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $448,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $448,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $448,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $448,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $448,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $448,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $448,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $448,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $448,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $448,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-04-05
    listed $448,000 Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Distressed value-add multifamily opportunity in a prime New Haven location just minutes from Downtown and Yale University. Currently configured as a 4-family with approved plans and permits in place for conversion to a 5-unit residential building, offering significant upside potential. All major approvals have been secured, including zoning variance and building/fire department approvals. The proposed layout includes a mix of 1-bedroom, 3-bedroom, and large 4-bedroom units. Full interior and exterior renovation required. No on-site parking. Strong rental market supported by proximity to Yale, public transportation, and major highways. Rent comps available for both 4-unit and 5-unit scenarios. All the hard work is done. Just build and cash flow!

17. 2026-02-16
    historical
18. 2026-01-27
    price $420,000
19. 2026-01-01
    status Active
20. 2026-01-01
    historical
21. 2025-12-12
    price $450,000
22. 2025-10-21
    price $499,000
23. 2025-09-23
    listed $550,000 Active
24. 2020-02-04
    historical
25. 2020-01-01
    status Active
26. 2019-12-31
    historical
27. 2019-11-21
    status Active
28. 2019-11-07
    historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
29. 2019-07-19
    listed $279,900 Active
30. 2019-07-15
    historical
31. 2019-03-24
    listed $279,900 Active
32. 2019-03-01
    historical
33. 2018-07-05
    price $279,900
34. 2018-02-22
    price $285,000
35. 2018-02-21
    listed $285 Active
36. 2018-02-18
    historical
37. 2017-08-18
    listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $112,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,095
• − Property taxes: −$6,720
• − Insurance: −$2,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,012
• − Management: −$9,012
• − Depreciation: −$13,033
• Taxable income: $47,533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,408
• After-tax cash flow: $40,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 54,730
• Household income: $59,969
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4999.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.05%
• Current HPI: 328.1353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+49.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Listed $448,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $420,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $450,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $499,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $550,000 Smart MLS
• 2020-02-04 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2020-01-01 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2019-12-31 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2019-11-21 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2019-11-07 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2019-07-19 Listed $279,900 Smart MLS
• 2019-07-15 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2019-03-24 Listed $279,900 Smart MLS
• 2019-03-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2018-07-05 Price Changed $279,900 Smart MLS
• 2018-02-22 Price Changed $285,000 Smart MLS
• 2018-02-21 Listed $285 Smart MLS
• 2018-02-18 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2017-08-18 Listed $299,900 Smart MLS