2240 Golden Oak Ln #73 · Merced, CA 95341

$53,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 1969 $79/sqft · 9% below area Est $58k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just like brand new single wide in the Prestigeous Sierra Portal Senor Gated Mobile Home Park. One bedroom, one bath, New flooring, dual pane windows, walk in shower, toilet, vanity, granite countertop in kitchen and bath, Can LED lights throughout, new flooring, and new ceiling fans in large living room, and bedroom, large, covered patio. Brand new roof, dishwasher, gas range, storage shed. Must be approved by manager before writing offer.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Dual-pane windows
• Led can lighting

Tags

• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• LED CAN LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No land lease
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Gas plumbed; Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Built in 1969
• Construction: Champion make; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Storage area; Shed(s); Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Porch; Storage area; Shed(s); Pets allowed with size limit; Stone counters
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside (inside room); 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 3.4% in Merced — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#153 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,410 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.98%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,091
• List price: $53,000
• Delta: -8.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $26,050
• Equity at exit: $7,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $62,795
• Equity at exit: $4,582

Cash invested: $14,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95341

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$66 /mo · $795/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $618

Max offer price $53,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,250
• Closing costs: $1,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1560 Ellen Ct Apt 4 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	13d	1	0.44mi
134 S Parsons Ave Apt F Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	13d	1	0.65mi
958 Barney St Unit n/a Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,100	$1.76	13d	1	0.91mi
2560 Midge Ave Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	708	$1,075	$1.52	8d	8	0.97mi
2177 Weston Way Unit n/a Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	546	$1,175	$2.15	13d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $53,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $53,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $53,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $53,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $53,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $53,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $57,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $57,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $57,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $57,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $57,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $57,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $57,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2023-06-26
    soldstatus $69,000 Closed Sale 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Just like brand new single wide in the Prestigeous Sierra Portal Senor Gated Mobile Home Park. One bedroom, one bath, New flooring, dual pane windows, walk in shower, toilet, vanity, granite countertop in kitchen and bath, Can LED lights throughout, new flooring, and new ceiling fans in large living room, and bedroom, large, covered patio. Brand new roof, dishwasher, gas range, storage shed. Must be approved by manager before writing offer.

18. 2023-06-06
    status Pending Sale 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Just like brand new single wide in the Prestigeous Sierra Portal Senor Gated Mobile Home Park. One bedroom, one bath, New flooring, dual pane windows, walk in shower, toilet, vanity, granite countertop in kitchen and bath, Can LED lights throughout, new flooring, and new ceiling fans in large living room, and bedroom, large, covered patio. Brand new roof, dishwasher, gas range, storage shed. Must be approved by manager before writing offer.

19. 2023-06-01
    listed $69,000 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Just like brand new single wide in the Prestigeous Sierra Portal Senor Gated Mobile Home Park. One bedroom, one bath, New flooring, dual pane windows, walk in shower, toilet, vanity, granite countertop in kitchen and bath, Can LED lights throughout, new flooring, and new ceiling fans in large living room, and bedroom, large, covered patio. Brand new roof, dishwasher, gas range, storage shed. Must be approved by manager before writing offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,969
• − Property taxes: −$795
• − Insurance: −$1,732
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$1,542
• Taxable income: $6,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $5,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Merced

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #5111

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merced, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,385
• Household income: $57,342
• Rent vs Own: 61.5% rent · 38.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% White 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 55% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.65%
• Current HPI: 314.4223
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2023-06-26 Sold (MLS) $69,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-06 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-06-01 Listed $69,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2020): $90 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.