4401 Cherokee Rd · Embreeville, TN 37659

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1950 8,712 sqft lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

REDUCED TO SELL! Bring your tools and your vision! This home offers lots of space for the money but needs lots of work. Great location just outside of Johnson City. Home is being sold as-is. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer ort buyer's agent to verify.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Parking pad
• Utilities: Electricity available; Private sewer; Water: see remarks
• Home design: Single family house; Two levels; Residential property in RS zoning; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Property has a view; Level to sloped topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Cooling via heat pump
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $997 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Washington County (suburban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #54 of 139 in TN (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lamar Elementary (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #654 of 952 statewide, top 72%, 421 students, 0% FRL); David Crockett High School (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #56 of 332 statewide, top 20%, 1,181 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 41% district-wide (41 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.23%
• DSCR: 5.46
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $56,261
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.40×
• Total profit: $130,993
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37659

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $997

Break-even live

Break-even rent $464

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    pricestatus $45,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $55,000 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    price $55,000
19. 2026-05-21
    status Active
20. 2026-05-18
    status Pending
21. 2026-05-14
    price $59,000
22. 2026-05-04
    price $69,900
23. 2026-05-01
    status Active
24. 2026-04-29
    historical
25. 2026-04-21
    listed $89,900 Active
26. 2026-04-02
    soldstatus $78,550

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$891
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $12,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,880
• After-tax cash flow: $9,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington County
• NCES district ID: 4704380
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,542
• Composite: 25.85/100
• National rank: #7350
• State rank: #54 of 139 in TN

Livability — Embreeville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Washington County · 129,006 people
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• Population (ZIP): 29,080
• Household income: $71,110
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 132,816 people
• By 2030: 135,823 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 140,897 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 145,073 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 156,386 · +17.7%
• By 2100: 159,893 · +20.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.6% · R 69.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+36.2 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+38.5 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.31%
• Current HPI: 298.6464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $55,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $59,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $69,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $89,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $78,550 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.