Is Trinity Plan in Texas City, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.3% cap rate and $-700/mo modeled cash flow at a $335,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Trinity Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,719/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 30.8

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.5/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Rent growth +3.5/5.0
Schools +3.1/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +1.6/10.0
DSCR +0.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$335,990

Trinity Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,513 sqft · SingleFamily · 494 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Our grandest home in the Cobalt Series, the Trinity floor plan boasts an impressive two-story floor plan that is sure to suit most any lifestyle. Upon entry, you are first greeted by the private study room that also has the option of transforming into a fifth bedroom if you would rather have the space for more guests to visit. Next, you will find the access to your convenient downstairs powder room, a walk-in utility room, as well as the entry to your two-and-a-half-car garage. Needing more storage for another car? Opt to swap your standard two-car garage for a sizable three-car garage! Down the hall, you will reach the heart of your home - the massive, two-story family room with soaring ceilings and consisting of plenty of natural light. Opening up to the family room is the convenient adjoined kitchen and breakfast area with access to your optional extended covered patio. Your elegant kitchen comes fully equipped with industry-leading appliances, sleek granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, designer light fixtures, and the option to put in an island and extra cabinets if you desire more counterspace. With features like these, you will want to cook every meal! Completing the first floor is your secluded Master suite with your master bathroom containing the cultured marble countertops with option of dual vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, and a huge walk- in closet. Upgrade your bathroom space to include a master luxury bath with stand alone shower or a. ..

Key facts

Three-car garage
Private study room
Walk-in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $336k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-700 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (7.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (19.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $272k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 494 days — a 12% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $271,863 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 494 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.66% ✗
Cap rate: 4.25%
Cash-on-cash: -7.28%
DSCR: 0.68
GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $412,108
List price: $335,990
Delta: -18.47%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2825 Golden Isle Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,290 (-9%)	0mo	$399,990	$175	77
2722 Golden Isle Dr	0.25mi	4/3.5	2,666 (+6%)	0mo	$386,990	$145	74
2707 Ballast Green Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,707 (+8%)	1mo	$460,439	$170	70
3013 Gleason Terrace Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,772 (+10%)	0mo	$449,555	$162	70
3018 Mariner Island Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,229 (-11%)	1mo	$349,768	$157	68
2930 Palm Branch Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5	2,795 (+11%)	0mo	$402,990	$144	68
13310 Suntail Ct	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,316 (-8%)	0mo	$309,900	$134	62
13026 Oleander Bay Ln	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,163 (-14%)	0mo	$314,990	$146	50
3206 Freeboard Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,260 (-10%)	0mo	$315,000	$139	50
3605 Moraine Lake Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,214 (-12%)	0mo	$342,990	$155	46
3002 Fair Wind Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,188 (-13%)	1mo	$369,900	$169	46
3626 Moraine Lake Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,214 (-12%)	0mo	$342,990	$155	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -27.9%
Equity multiple: 0.06×
Total profit: $-108,715
Equity at exit: $61,447

10-year hold

IRR: -23.4%
Equity multiple: -0.22×
Total profit: $-140,957
Equity at exit: $35,632

Cash invested: $115,390 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 209 active · 78 under contract
Months of supply: 10.8 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $369,900 ($155/sqft)
Median days on market: 107 d
This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +6.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

Home prices YoY: -22.7%
Rents YoY: 4.0%
Active inventory: 783
Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,719 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,161
Tax est. 1.5%: −$515 /mo · $6,182/yr
Insurance: −$172
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
Net cashflow: $-700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,605

Max offer price $310,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-415	-5% $-558	+0% $-700	+5% $-843	+10% $-985
Rent	-10% $-915	-5% $-808	+0% $-700	+5% $-593	+10% $-485
Rate	-1.0pp $-493	-0.5pp $-595	base $-700	+0.5pp $-807	+1.0pp $-916

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $103,027
Closing costs: $12,363
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	2411	$3,200	$1.33	17d	1	0.48mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.55mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	71d	1	0.93mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	42d	1	0.98mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1825	$2,650	$1.45	0d	5	1.05mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	12d	1	1.05mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,179	$1.18	0d	1	1.06mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	7d	1	1.10mi
12306 Wavecrest Rd La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	27d	1	1.15mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	54d	1	1.20mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	30d	1	1.21mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	16d	1	1.26mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	60d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $335,990 Active 494 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $335,990 Active 492 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $335,990 Active 491 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $335,990 Active 490 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $335,990 Active 489 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $335,990 Active 486 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $335,990 Active 485 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $335,990 Active 484 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $335,990 Active 483 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $335,990 Active 481 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $335,990 Active 479 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $335,990 Active 478 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $335,990 Active 477 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $335,990 Active 476 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $335,990 Active 475 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $335,990 Active 473 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $335,990 Active 472 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $335,990 Active 471 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $335,990 Active 470 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $335,990 Active 469 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $335,990 Active 468 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $335,990 Active 467 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $335,990 Active 466 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $335,990 Active 465 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $335,990 Active 464 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $335,990 Active 462 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $335,990 Active 461 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $335,990 Active 460 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $335,990 Active 459 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $335,990 Active 458 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $335,990 Active 457 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $335,990 Active 456 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $335,990 Active 455 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $335,990 Active 454 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $335,990 Active 453 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $335,990 Active 452 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $335,990 Active 451 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $335,990 Active 449 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $335,990 Active 447 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $335,990 Active 446 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $335,990 Active 443 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $335,990 Active 442 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $335,990 Active 441 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $335,990 Active 440 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $335,990 Active 438 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $335,990 Active 434 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $335,990 Active 433 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $335,990 Active 432 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $335,990 Active 429 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $335,990 Active 428 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $32,624
− Mortgage interest: −$23,084
− Property taxes: −$6,182
− Insurance: −$2,061
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,610
− Management: −$2,610
− Depreciation: −$11,989
Taxable loss: −$15,911

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,819
After-tax cash flow: $-4,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some minor updates to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
Resale Replace window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic and energy efficiency ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑
Resale Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures can enhance the home's ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Dickinson ISD
NCES district ID: 4817070
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $61,318
Composite: 35.16/100
National rank: #5005
State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

Score: 62/100
State rank: #907
US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Texas City, TX
County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
City population: 49,936
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 23,083
Household income: $74,694
Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 390,640 people
By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
Current HPI: 236.0239
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2025-04-01 Listed $335,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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