410 Northern Red Dr · Nevada, TX 75173

$279,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,973 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $294k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful open concept 4 2 Farmhouse with 3 car garage. Split bedroom layout great for families and primary bedroom features a VERY large walk in closet. Come tour this home is won't last long

Key facts

• 8,973 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition
• Financial info: Loan type: Treat as clear; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with semi-annual fee; Association fee $275 semi-annually; Association provides full use of community facilities; HOA managed by Assured Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 covered garage spaces; Driveway parking; Garage approx. 28 ft wide by 20 ft deep
• Security: No specific security features provided
• Utilities: Served by MUD water and MUD sewer; Municipal Utility District in place
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story home; Residence not attached to other properties
• Construction: New construction (year built 2026); No additional construction material or roof/foundation details provided
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.206 acres); Subdivision: Waverly Estates

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Microwave; Breakfast room adjacent to kitchen, approx. 13 x 11
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom on main level, approx. 14 x 16; Three additional bedrooms on main level, approx. 11 x 10 each
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric cooling; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; 7 total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Single-level living
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.9% in Nevada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#881 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,112 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,060
• List price: $279,490
• Delta: -4.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Gooseberry Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-6%)	4mo	$259,990	$144	81
502 Gooseberry Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+6%)	5mo	$295,990	$146	81
507 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+6%)	5mo	$320,990	$159	81
509 Silver Birch Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,024 (+6%)	6mo	$299,990	$148	80
511 Silver Birch Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-6%)	7mo	$310,490	$172	79
510 Silver Birch Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+6%)	3mo	$285,990	$141	78
410 Silver Birch Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-6%)	9mo	$303,990	$169	77
503 Silver Birch Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+6%)	8mo	$297,490	$146	74
1213 Bristlecone Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-14%)	2mo	$263,990	$160	70
508 Gooseberry Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-14%)	6mo	$296,990	$179	67
510 English Oak Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-14%)	8mo	$280,490	$169	66
515 Hubbard Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (-5%)	0mo	$425,000	$234	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $121,817
• Equity at exit: $251,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $382,913
• Equity at exit: $542,988

Cash invested: $78,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,192/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,587

Max offer price $210,197

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-286	-5% $-382	+0% $-479	+5% $-575	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-635	-5% $-557	+0% $-479	+5% $-401	+10% $-322
Rate	-1.0pp $-338	-0.5pp $-408	base $-479	+0.5pp $-551	+1.0pp $-625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,872
• Closing costs: $8,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1213 Bristlecone DR Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,900	$1.15	8d	1	0.09mi
831 Lexington Ln Nevada, TX	4.0	2.5	2089	$2,095	$1.00	14d	1	1.01mi
6425 Mirage St Nevada, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,050	$1.53	26d	1	1.06mi
422 E FM 6 Nevada, TX	5.0	2.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	1.32mi
450 Collin St Nevada, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,000	$1.27	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $279,490 193-char remark
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $292,490 Active 193-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,656
• − Property taxes: −$4,192
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,131
• Taxable loss: −$10,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,581
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It has a good layout and potential for further value-adding improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding a backsplash in the kitchen — A backsplash can add a modern touch and protect the walls from spills and stains.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can improve the home's resale value and rental appeal.
• Both Installing smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract buyers/tenants who value eco-friendly features.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding a backsplash in the kitchen — A backsplash can add a modern touch and protect the walls from spills and stains. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — High-quality flooring can improve the home's resale value and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Installing smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract buyers/tenants who value eco-friendly features. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nevada

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #881
• US rank: #15880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $279,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $292,490 NTREIS