407 Mills St · Valdosta, GA 31601

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 845 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1958 0.32 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime investment opportunity located within city limits in a highly sought-after area. This property is conveniently positioned near major shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, making it attractive to both tenants and future homeowners. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or secure a property with long-term appreciation potential, this one checks the boxes. Strong demand in the surrounding area adds even more value. Schedule your showing today! Property includes 407 & 409 Mills St./ Property at 409 Mills St. is currently rented with long time tenant. Can see by appointment only during DD period.

Key facts

• Near restaurants
• Strong demand
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• HIGHLY SOUGHT-AFTER AREA
• NEAR MAJOR SHOPPING CENTERS
• NEAR RESTAURANTS
• NEAR EVERYDAY ESSENTIALS
• STRONG DEMAND

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $79,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$215,712) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($937 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Valdosta City (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #149 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.85%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,712
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -62.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 W West St	0.08mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	10mo	$15,000	$19	76
410 West Adair St	0.47mi	2/1.0	894 (+6%)	2mo	$15,000	$17	67
210 Walnut St	0.19mi	2/2.0	953 (+13%)	22mo	$25,000	$26	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $8,415
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $50,914
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31601

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $937 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $357/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $610

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
808 Lilly St Apt B Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	872	$895	$1.03	44d	1	0.57mi
200 W Adair St Unit A9 Valdosta, GA	1.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	21d	1	0.64mi
1004 N Oak St Valdosta, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	866	$750	$0.87	21d	3	0.68mi
1029 Johnson St Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	986	$900	$0.91	44d	1	0.69mi
1005 N Oak St Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	1087	$795	$0.73	44d	1	0.70mi
1010 N Toombs St Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,000	$0.95	21d	3	0.74mi
205 E Adair St Unit 4 Valdosta, GA	1.0	1.0	700	$550	$0.79	44d	1	0.88mi
1505 Lankford Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1166	$1,137	$0.97	21d	1	0.99mi
507 Roberts St Apt B Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,200	$1.08	21d	1	1.10mi
1400 Baytree Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1277	$549	$0.43	44d	1	1.11mi
1314 Hastings Dr Apt A2 Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.5	1100	$995	$0.90	21d	1	1.13mi
1531 Woodard St Apt C3 Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.5	900	$995	$1.11	21d	1	1.16mi
1307 Melody Ln Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,050	$1.02	21d	1	1.18mi
1537 Woodard St Unit B Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.5	1020	$900	$0.88	21d	1	1.19mi
1455 Green St Unit A Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.5	1048	$900	$0.86	21d	1	1.20mi
522 Green St Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	1020	$900	$0.88	21d	1	1.26mi
1603 Victory St Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	874	$795	$0.91	21d	6	1.30mi
1509 Pine St Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,140	$1.20	21d	2	1.31mi
1506 Slater St Unit 7 Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.5	1037	$695	$0.67	44d	1	1.32mi
1709 Azalea Dr Apt B Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	775	$1,250	$1.61	21d	1	1.32mi
1602 Victory St Unit 1602 C Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	865	$795	$0.92	21d	1	1.33mi
1755 Poplar St Unit B Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	840	$950	$1.13	21d	1	1.41mi
604 E Brookwood Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	44d	1	1.42mi
805 Harmon Dr Valdosta, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1100	$1,425	$1.30	21d	6	1.46mi
207 E Moore St Unit L Valdosta, GA	1.0	1.0	850	$700	$0.82	21d	1	1.50mi
207 E Moore St Unit J Valdosta, GA	1.0	1.0	850	$700	$0.82	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $79,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-03-18
    price $79,900 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Prime investment opportunity located within city limits in a highly sought-after area. This property is conveniently positioned near major shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, making it attractive to both tenants and future homeowners. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or secure a property with long-term appreciation potential, this one checks the boxes. Strong demand in the surrounding area adds even more value. Schedule your showing today! Property includes 407 & 409 Mills St. Property at 409 Mills St. is currently rented with long time tenant. Can see by appointment only during DD period.

19. 2026-03-18
    price $79,900 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Prime investment opportunity located within city limits in a highly sought-after area. This property is conveniently positioned near major shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, making it attractive to both tenants and future homeowners. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or secure a property with long-term appreciation potential, this one checks the boxes. Strong demand in the surrounding area adds even more value. Schedule your showing today! Property includes 407 & 409 Mills St. Property at 409 Mills St. is currently rented with long time tenant. Can see by appointment only during DD period.

20. 2026-02-20
    listed $89,900 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Prime investment opportunity located within city limits in a highly sought-after area. This property is conveniently positioned near major shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, making it attractive to both tenants and future homeowners. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or secure a property with long-term appreciation potential, this one checks the boxes. Strong demand in the surrounding area adds even more value. Schedule your showing today! Property includes 407 & 409 Mills St. Property at 409 Mills St. is currently rented with long time tenant. Can see by appointment only during DD period.

21. 2026-02-17
    listed $89,900 New 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Prime investment opportunity located within city limits in a highly sought-after area. This property is conveniently positioned near major shopping centers, restaurants, and everyday essentials, making it attractive to both tenants and future homeowners. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or secure a property with long-term appreciation potential, this one checks the boxes. Strong demand in the surrounding area adds even more value. Schedule your showing today! Property includes 407 & 409 Mills St./ Property at 409 Mills St. is currently rented with long time tenant. Can see by appointment only during DD period.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $357 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $735 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$32/mo · 106.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$357
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$899
• − Management: −$899
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $1,888
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$453
• After-tax cash flow: $2,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valdosta City
• NCES district ID: 1305310
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,634
• Composite: 14.79/100
• National rank: #9388
• State rank: #149 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valdosta, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 31,302
• Household income: $36,111
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2016.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.12%
• Current HPI: 121.5948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.34%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $79,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $79,900 SGMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $89,900 SGMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $89,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $357 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.