2406 S 1st St · Blackwell, OK 74631

$67,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2008 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Home on Half an Acre!! This well-kept 3-bedroom, 2 bath mobile home sits on half an acre and offers a comfortable split bedroom plan with a private master suite. The open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area provides an easy, functional layout perfect for everyday living. All appliances—including refrigerator, range, dishwasher, and washer/dryer—remain with the property, adding immediate value for buyers.

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Half an acre
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE
• ALL APPLIANCES REMAIN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax: $234

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residential home
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.449 acres (about 19,558 sq ft)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Subdivision: Highland Lawn

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 11.5% in Blackwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#385 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Blackwell (town): math 27% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #116 of 270 in OK (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Kay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $467 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kay County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,475 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.97%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $20,716
• Equity at exit: $10,712

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $58,471
• Equity at exit: $6,955

Cash invested: $18,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74631

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$354
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $221/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $507

Max offer price $67,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,875
• Closing costs: $2,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $67,500 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,500 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,500 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,500 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,500 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $67,500 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $67,500 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,500 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,500 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,500 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,500 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,500 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,500 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,500 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,500 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,500 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $67,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $221 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$386/yr (+$32/mo · 174.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,781
• − Property taxes: −$221
• − Insurance: −$338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − Depreciation: −$1,964
• Taxable income: $5,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,208
• After-tax cash flow: $4,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blackwell
• NCES district ID: 4004630
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,923
• Composite: 20.93/100
• National rank: #8480
• State rank: #116 of 270 in OK

Livability — Blackwell

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #20038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,795
• Population (ZIP): 6,795

Population outlook (Kay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,389 people
• By 2030: 42,222 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 40,108 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 38,231 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 34,119 · -21.4%
• By 2100: 28,526 · -34.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Kay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.4) · D 24.4% · R 73.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -49.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.4 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.78%
• Current HPI: 183.6342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $67,500 NCBOR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $221 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.