3811 28th St · Lubbock, TX 79410

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1957 7,950 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, Location, Location!! This Home is prefectly located near Tech, Medical and LCU. Has been a rental for the past several years and is professionally managed. This Home is a large 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage with a den and bonus area. Vinyl plank and tile throughout. Large backyard as well. Current tenants will be out August 15th. All this great Home needs is a little updating.

Key facts

• 7,950 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and Masonite exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.18-acre lot
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Wood fencing (fenced yard)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-452 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (50.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (50.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Overton El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 277 students, 84% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,193 (50.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-50,739
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-64,934
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79410

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,884/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $79,193

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-362	-5% $-407	+0% $-452	+5% $-497	+10% $-542
Rent	-10% $-563	-5% $-508	+0% $-452	+5% $-396	+10% $-340
Rate	-1.0pp $-372	-0.5pp $-411	base $-452	+0.5pp $-493	+1.0pp $-535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3807 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,500	$1.06	15d	1	0.10mi
3709 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,400	$1.20	23d	1	0.16mi
4103 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	45d	1	0.24mi
3709 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1107	$950	$0.86	45d	1	0.32mi
3620 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,200	$1.05	23d	1	0.34mi
4304 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	0.40mi
3502 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,295	$1.12	45d	1	0.47mi
3812 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	0.50mi
3418 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,350	$1.01	23d	1	0.50mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	23d	1	0.56mi
3319 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,500	$0.99	45d	1	0.61mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	45d	1	0.66mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	45d	1	0.68mi
3302 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,725	$1.04	23d	1	0.71mi
4108 18th St Unit Lo Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,249	$1.07	15d	1	0.73mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	45d	1	0.81mi
3408 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$1,895	$0.98	45d	1	0.82mi
3119 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1888	$1,400	$0.74	23d	1	0.86mi
4315 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,450	$0.93	23d	1	0.92mi
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	45d	1	0.93mi
2409 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,400	$0.83	23d	1	0.94mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	23d	1	0.95mi
3101 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1250	$999	$0.80	45d	1	1.01mi
3019 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1573	$1,500	$0.95	15d	1	1.03mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	1.04mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	45d	1	1.05mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	23d	1	1.06mi
3126 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1248	$1,195	$0.96	45d	1	1.07mi
3007 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1353	$1,325	$0.98	23d	1	1.08mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	1.12mi
3001 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1165	$1,400	$1.20	45d	1	1.14mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	45d	1	1.15mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	23d	1	1.15mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	45d	1	1.16mi
2826 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1294	$1,300	$1.00	23d	1	1.17mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	23d	1	1.20mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	15d	1	1.22mi
3505 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1686	$1,550	$0.92	45d	1	1.24mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	1.24mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	45d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $159,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 392-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $159,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,884 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$26/yr (+$2/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,884
• − Insurance: −$5,914
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,355
• − Management: −$1,355
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$8,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,944
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,137
• Household income: $44,537
• Rent vs Own: 67.7% rent · 32.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1068.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.78%
• Current HPI: 272.7482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $159,000 LARMLS
• 2005-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,884 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.