21215 Trumpet Lily Trl · Houston, TX 77377

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2020 6,669 sqft lot Est $370k · 26% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience 21215 Trumpet Lily Trl, recently updated with fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement. The kitchen features an accent backsplash and a convenient island. The primary bedroom contains a walk in closet, complementing the exterior with a covered patio that leads to a fenced in backyard. This move-in ready residence blends updates and functionality beautifully. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential. . Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Covered patio
• Convenient island

Tags

• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• CONVENIENT ISLAND
• WALK IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Sterling Association Services, Inc.; Annual association fee of $450

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2020; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Security system (owned); Lot includes other features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 19 x 14); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 10 x 13, 10 x 9, 9 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Seller provided disclosure available; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-527 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grand Oaks El (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 979 students, 29% FRL); Grand Lakes J H (969 students, 29% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 730 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,862 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.22%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $370,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21231 Bush Brook Bend Path	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,980 (0%)	1mo	$274,900	$139	96
21242 Bush Brook Bend Path	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,980 (0%)	0mo	$284,900	$144	95
21214 Bridle Rose Trl	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,175 (+10%)	1mo	$391,119	$180	75
18615 Scarlet Meadow Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,783 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$157	74
19303 Seabiscuit Stable Trl	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,987 (+0%)	1mo	$400,000	$201	71
20907 Twining Rose Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-14%)	1mo	$264,900	$155	58
18106 Velaris Way	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,846 (-7%)	1mo	$378,530	$205	55
20818 Little Sebastian Trl	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,785 (-10%)	1mo	$339,900	$190	52
18323 Calabria Harbor Trl	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,782 (-10%)	2mo	$333,985	$187	48
19327 Palfrey Prairie Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,741 (-12%)	1mo	$330,000	$190	46
18250 Sonresa Way	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,782 (-10%)	2mo	$333,825	$187	46
20819 Little Sebastian Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (-14%)	1mo	$329,900	$195	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-84,716
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -78.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-142,348
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 730
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$795 /mo · $9,543/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,025

Max offer price $190,862

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-372	-5% $-449	+0% $-527	+5% $-605	+10% $-683
Rent	-10% $-714	-5% $-620	+0% $-527	+5% $-434	+10% $-341
Rate	-1.0pp $-389	-0.5pp $-457	base $-527	+0.5pp $-599	+1.0pp $-671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21027 Twining Rose Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,049	$1.27	7d	1	0.17mi
19110 Brindled Bay Ct Tomball, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,750	$1.34	4d	1	0.94mi
19110 Brindled Bay Ct Tomball, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,750	$1.34	1d	1	0.94mi
22406 Birch Bud Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,299	$1.24	5d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 504-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,543 · $795/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,543 · $795/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$9,543
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,264
• − Management: −$2,264
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$11,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+53.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,543 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.