7564 Rocky Ridge Rd · Saw Creek, PA 18302

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $150k · 10% over $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * OPEN HOUSE Friday 6/19 5pm-7pm * * * Motivated Seller! Welcome to this well-maintained manufactured home located in a land-lease community where you own the home and lease the property, in East Stroudsburg. This move-in ready residence offers modern upgrades, thoughtful features, and comfortable living. Enjoy central air, a whole-home surge protector, and a dedicated generator-ready electrical panel for added convenience and peace of mind. The roof is only 2 years old, and the spacious front deck was rebuilt just 1 year ago, creating the perfect space for relaxing or entertaining. A standout feature is the front shed with electricity, ideal for a workshop, hobby area, or additiona

Key facts

• Front deck
• Central air
• 8 parking spots

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR
• WHOLE-HOME SURGE PROTECTOR
• FRONT DECK
• FRONT SHED WITH ELECTRICITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.07%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,228
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7617 Rocky Rdg	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-9%)	17mo	$137,000	$107	70
7816 Dougherty Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	20mo	$149,900	$116	67
7630 Rocky Rdg	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	20mo	$99,000	$83	59
7584 Rocky Ridge Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-14%)	24mo	$102,000	$84	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $42,099
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $125,299
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,052/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $1,081

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,174	-5% $1,127	+0% $1,081	+5% $1,034	+10% $987
Rent	-10% $865	-5% $973	+0% $1,081	+5% $1,189	+10% $1,296
Rate	-1.0pp $1,164	-0.5pp $1,123	base $1,081	+0.5pp $1,038	+1.0pp $995

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6281 Lakeshore Dr E East Stroudsburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,750	$1.90	44d	1	1.32mi
1273 Chateau Dr East Stroudsburg, PA	3.0	1.0	1073	$2,700	$2.52	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $165,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $149,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-26
    listed $149,000 Active
20. 2022-04-18
    historical
21. 2020-07-10
    listed $69,900
22. 2020-07-10
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,052 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,829 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$778/yr (+$65/mo · 73.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,052
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,619
• − Management: −$2,619
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $10,947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,627
• After-tax cash flow: $10,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+113.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $149,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-04-18 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2020-07-10 Listed $69,900 GLVRMLS
• 2020-07-10 Listed $69,900 PMAR

Property tax history

-5.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,052 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.