276 Union Gap Loop Rd · Sutherlin, OR 97462

$214,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · Other public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1955 7,840 sqft lot $126/sqft · 34% below area Est $324k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely designed home, open and bright. 1712 SF 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Large shop area for the toys and hobbyist. Private feel. Definitely feels like country but just minutes to Oakland Oregon or Back to Sutherlin. An hour to the beautiful Oregon coast, less than an hour to the rugged cascades. Back on market due to buyer fail.

Key facts

• Large shop area
• Private feel
• Hour to oregon coast

Tags

• LARGE SHOP AREA
• PRIVATE FEEL
• MINUTES TO OAKLAND OREGON
• HOUR TO OREGON COAST
• LESS THAN AN HOUR TO CASCADES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.5% in Sutherlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Oakland SD 1 (rural): math 44% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 183 in OR (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.49%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,109
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -33.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $128,107
• Equity at exit: $193,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $368,353
• Equity at exit: $417,503

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97462

• Home prices YoY: 14.4%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,268/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $297	-5% $236	+0% $175	+5% $114	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $100	+0% $175	+5% $250	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $230	base $175	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 SE 1st St Oakland, OR	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,895	$1.46	14d	1	1.16mi
414 SE 1st St Oakland, OR	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,895	$1.50	14d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-02-23
   status Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nicely designed home, open and bright. 1712 SF 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Large shop area for the toys and hobbyist. Private feel. Definitely feels like country but just minutes to Oakland Oregon or Back to Sutherlin. An hour to the beautiful Oregon coast, less than an hour to the rugged cascades. Back on market due to buyer fail.

2. 2025-12-30
   status Pending 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nicely designed home, open and bright. 1712 SF 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Large shop area for the toys and hobbyist. Private feel. Definitely feels like country but just minutes to Oakland Oregon or Back to Sutherlin. An hour to the beautiful Oregon coast, less than an hour to the rugged cascades. Back on market due to buyer fail.

3. 2025-10-17
   price $214,900 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nicely designed home, open and bright. 1712 SF 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Large shop area for the toys and hobbyist. Private feel. Definitely feels like country but just minutes to Oakland Oregon or Back to Sutherlin. An hour to the beautiful Oregon coast, less than an hour to the rugged cascades. Back on market due to buyer fail.

4. 2025-10-16
   status Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nicely designed home, open and bright. 1712 SF 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Large shop area for the toys and hobbyist. Private feel. Definitely feels like country but just minutes to Oakland Oregon or Back to Sutherlin. An hour to the beautiful Oregon coast, less than an hour to the rugged cascades. Back on market due to buyer fail.

5. 2025-10-01
   status Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nicely designed home, open and bright. 1712 SF 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Large shop area for the toys and hobbyist. Private feel. Definitely feels like country but just minutes to Oakland Oregon or Back to Sutherlin. An hour to the beautiful Oregon coast, less than an hour to the rugged cascades. Back on market due to buyer fail.

6. 2025-08-25
   status Pending 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nicely designed home, open and bright. 1712 SF 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Large shop area for the toys and hobbyist. Private feel. Definitely feels like country but just minutes to Oakland Oregon or Back to Sutherlin. An hour to the beautiful Oregon coast, less than an hour to the rugged cascades. Back on market due to buyer fail.

7. 2025-07-15
   listed $225,000 Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   Nicely designed home, open and bright. 1712 SF 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Large shop area for the toys and hobbyist. Private feel. Definitely feels like country but just minutes to Oakland Oregon or Back to Sutherlin. An hour to the beautiful Oregon coast, less than an hour to the rugged cascades. Back on market due to buyer fail.

8. 2018-09-27
   soldstatus $195,000 Sold 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Charming Farmhouse Style Home w/ a Close in Country Feel! Updated Home Features New Kitchen Appliances, Exterior Paint, and More! Entertain Guests in the Spacious Living Areas, Or Cozy Up in front of the Fireplace! Host Summer BBQ's on the Large Patio w/a Beautiful Pergola, or Enjoy Working in the Oversized Shop that is perfect for any Hobbyist! Convenient to I-5, Roseburg, and More!

9. 2018-09-27
   soldstatus $200,000

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Charming Farmhouse Style Home w/ a Close in Country Feel! Updated Home Features New Kitchen Appliances, Exterior Paint, and More! Entertain Guests in the Spacious Living Areas, Or Cozy Up in front of the Fireplace! Host Summer BBQ's on the Large Patio w/a Beautiful Pergola, or Enjoy Working in the Oversized Shop that is perfect for any Hobbyist! Convenient to I-5, Roseburg, and More!

10. 2018-08-16
    status Pending 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Charming Farmhouse Style Home w/ a Close in Country Feel! Updated Home Features New Kitchen Appliances, Exterior Paint, and More! Entertain Guests in the Spacious Living Areas, Or Cozy Up in front of the Fireplace! Host Summer BBQ's on the Large Patio w/a Beautiful Pergola, or Enjoy Working in the Oversized Shop that is perfect for any Hobbyist! Convenient to I-5, Roseburg, and More!

11. 2018-08-08
    listed $199,900 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Charming Farmhouse Style Home w/ a Close in Country Feel! Updated Home Features New Kitchen Appliances, Exterior Paint, and More! Entertain Guests in the Spacious Living Areas, Or Cozy Up in front of the Fireplace! Host Summer BBQ's on the Large Patio w/a Beautiful Pergola, or Enjoy Working in the Oversized Shop that is perfect for any Hobbyist! Convenient to I-5, Roseburg, and More!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,268 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,085 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$817/yr (+$68/mo · 64.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$1,268
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$1,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$367
• After-tax cash flow: $2,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakland SD 1
• NCES district ID: 4109120
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,653
• Composite: 47.51/100
• National rank: #4983
• State rank: #21 of 183 in OR

Livability — Sutherlin

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #7711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,027

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Slovak 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.86%
• Current HPI: 418.8492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+7.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-12-30 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $214,900 RMLS
• 2025-10-16 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-08-25 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $225,000 RMLS
• 2018-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) $195,000 RMLS
• 2018-08-16 Pending — RMLS
• 2018-08-08 Listed $199,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,268 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.