1291 Bacon Creek Rd · Elizabethtown, KY 42701

$1

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1997 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

(REAL ESTATE AUCTION - THURSDAY MAY 21st at 5PM EST) 3 BEDROOM - 2 FULL BATHROOMS - 1,454 SQUARE FEET - 0.7 ACRE - BUILT IN 1997 - GRANITE COUNTERTOPS - VAULTED CEILINGS IN LIVING ROOM - PROPANE FIREPLACE- ENGINEERED AND/OR LAMINATE FLOORS THROUGHOUT (NO CARPET) - APPLIANCES REMAIN - SCREENED IN SUNROOM WITH COMPOSITE DECKING - CORNER LOT -- ATTACHED 2 CAR GARAGE - CONCRETE DRIVEWAY - STORAGE SHED - AMAZING CONDITION AND EXTREMELY WELL MAINTAINED - CONVENIENTLY LOCATED TO WESTERN KY PARKWAY, SCHOOLS, RESTAURANTS AND SHOPPING AUCTIONEER'S NOTE- THIS IS ONE OF THE CLEANEST AND MOST WELL MAINTAINED HOMES YOU WILL FIND. DON'T MISS YOUR OPPORTUNITY TO PURCHASE THIS HOME AT PUBLIC AUCTION. THE S

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1997

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as Auction
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached driveway parking; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane available; One HVAC unit
• Home design: Ranch-style residential home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1997; Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Crawl space and concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared, level lot; Corner lot; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; First-floor dining area
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor); Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

🔨 Auction listing. The $1 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $205,014 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#131 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 539 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 307521.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,014
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1223 Bacon Creek Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+5%)	18mo	$215,600	$141	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-38,300
• Equity at exit: $30,568

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-38,277
• Equity at exit: $17,726

Cash invested: $57,404 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42701

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 539

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $192,184

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,254
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $1 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $1 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-05-10
   listed $1 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,484
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #6198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 77,611 people
• City population: 53,987
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• Population (ZIP): 53,987
• Household income: $69,619
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.94%
• Current HPI: 228.7091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,267 · +45.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.