1404 SE 12th St · Mineral Wells, TX 76067

$150,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1950 5,619 sqft lot Est $150k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 1 bath updated home ready to go. Granite countertops, new cabinets, new flooring, new paint. Recent Central HVAC ready to go.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Updated electrical
• Outdoor firepit

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• PRIVATE EXTERIOR ENTRANCE
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• MATURE TREES
• OUTDOOR FIREPIT
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.7% in Mineral Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#278 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, schools F.
• Mineral Wells ISD (town): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,234
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1404 SE 12th St	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,022 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$147	99
1405 SE 13th St	0.02mi	3/1.5 (-1)	978 (-4%)	7mo	$159,000	$163	79
1405 SE 8 1/2 St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,055 (+3%)	6mo	$167,500	$159	74
1616 SE Park Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,034 (+1%)	7mo	$119,000	$115	69
1016 SE 3rd St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-1%)	7mo	$125,000	$124	60
2108 SE 19th St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,069 (+5%)	2mo	$174,900	$164	60
1007 SE 24th St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,026 (+0%)	4mo	$145,000	$141	58
716 SE 7th Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (+3%)	11mo	$149,900	$143	58
1816 SE 18th St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,111 (+9%)	9mo	$119,900	$108	54
1201 SE 11th Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,160 (+14%)	11mo	$62,500	$54	53
812 SE 15th St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,110 (+9%)	10mo	$205,000	$185	52
1705 11th St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,173 (+15%)	3mo	$205,000	$175	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,390
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,183
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76067

• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,833/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1106 SE 12th St Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,700	$1.20	4d	1	0.16mi
1911 SE 14th St Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,600	$1.27	24d	1	0.34mi
1912 SE 15th St Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	1.5	1043	$1,700	$1.63	24d	1	0.36mi
3001 NE 2nd St Mineral Wells, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,200	$1.32	1d	10	1.20mi
3116 SE Airport Rd Mineral Wells, TX	4.0	2.0	1248	$1,370	$1.10	24d	1	1.21mi
5507 Racetrack Ln Mineral Wells, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,360	$1.12	24d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2025-11-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-30
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2025-10-15
   listed $150,000 Active
4. 2024-03-26
   historical $1,395
5. 2024-03-19
   listed $1,395
6. 2024-03-16
   historical $1,395
7. 2024-03-04
   listed $1,395
8. 2024-02-28
   historical $1,395
9. 2024-02-27
   status Active
10. 2024-02-25
    listed $1,395
11. 2024-02-20
    status Active
12. 2024-02-17
    listed $169,300 Active
13. 2020-12-15
    soldstatus
14. 2020-12-11
    soldstatus Sold 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath updated home ready to go. Granite countertops, new cabinets, new flooring, new paint. Recent Central HVAC ready to go.

15. 2020-12-08
    status Pending 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath updated home ready to go. Granite countertops, new cabinets, new flooring, new paint. Recent Central HVAC ready to go.

16. 2020-11-30
    listed $109,900 Active 135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (135 chars)

    3 bedroom 1 bath updated home ready to go. Granite countertops, new cabinets, new flooring, new paint. Recent Central HVAC ready to go.

17. 2020-10-20
    soldstatus $60,000
18. 1997-05-05
    soldstatus
19. 1994-06-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,833 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,833 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,833
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$114
• After-tax cash flow: $2,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mineral Wells ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830950
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,027
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7500
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mineral Wells

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #278
• US rank: #6474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mineral Wells, TX
• County: Palo Pinto County · 21,080 people
• City population: 21,080
• Metro: Mineral Wells, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,080
• Household income: $62,190
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 745.0

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.09%
• Current HPI: 240.3647
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mineral Wells, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-10-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-26 Rental Removed $1,395 Avail
• 2024-03-19 Listed for Rent $1,395 Avail
• 2024-03-16 Rental Removed $1,395 NTREIS
• 2024-03-04 Listed for Rent $1,395 NTREIS
• 2024-02-28 Rental Removed $1,395 NTREIS
• 2024-02-27 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-02-25 Listed for Rent $1,395 NTREIS
• 2024-02-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-02-17 Listed $169,300 NTREIS
• 2020-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-12-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-11-30 Listed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2020-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1997-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,833 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.