3136 Peyton Cir · Aurora, IL 60503

$673,135

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,270 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $755k · 11% under $62/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lincoln Crossing, a charming community of two-story homes designed with families in mind. THIS HOME IS TO BE BUILT. The Riverton, a spacious and thoughtfully designed open-concept home, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The expansive Great Room seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and kitchen, creating the perfect space for family gatherings or hosting friends. You will enjoy relaxing in your bright airy sunroom. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream with built-in stainless-steel appliances, cabinetry of your choice and more. A large island with seating provides ample space for meal prep or casual dining and your pantry has lots of extra storage. The formal dini

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 7 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $673k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $483k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $430k (36.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $430k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#232 in IL, #4,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• CUSD 308 (suburban): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #179 of 620 in IL (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolfs Crossing Elem School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 2,056 statewide, top 18%, 485 students, 0% FRL); Bednarcik Junior High School (math 39% / reading 38%, grade F, #154 of 665 statewide, top 24%, 571 students, 0% FRL); Oswego East High School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #104 of 693 statewide, top 15%, 2,836 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 20% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($137k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $67k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $430,013 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.38%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $755,370
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3148 Peyton Cir	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,899 (-11%)	2mo	$637,992	$220	76
2973 Stonecrop Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	3,155 (-4%)	16mo	$611,560	$194	68
2959 Francis Ct	0.21mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,031 (-7%)	18mo	$700,000	$231	54
3213 Lincoln Prairie Blvd	0.52mi	4/3.5	3,300 (+1%)	22mo	$761,377	$231	52
3161 Anthony St	0.22mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,899 (-11%)	14mo	$695,000	$240	50
3257 Lincoln Prairie Blvd	0.55mi	4/3.5	3,590 (+10%)	14mo	$957,042	$267	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $282,844
• Equity at exit: $606,413

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $899,085
• Equity at exit: $1,307,753

Cash invested: $188,478 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60503

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,530
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$841 /mo · $10,097/yr
• Insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$903
• Net cashflow: $-1,317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,967

Max offer price $482,595

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-852	-5% $-1,084	+0% $-1,317	+5% $-1,549	+10% $-1,782
Rent	-10% $-1,656	-5% $-1,487	+0% $-1,317	+5% $-1,147	+10% $-977
Rate	-1.0pp $-978	-0.5pp $-1,146	base $-1,317	+0.5pp $-1,491	+1.0pp $-1,669

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,284
• Closing costs: $20,194
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2557 Tahoe Ct Aurora, IL	3.0	2.5	3805	$2,050	$0.54	26d	1	1.08mi
2036 Antietam Ct Aurora, IL	4.0	2.5	2345	$3,450	$1.47	4d	1	1.19mi
4219 Fraser Cir Naperville, IL	5.0	4.0	2800	$4,600	$1.64	0d	1	1.28mi
159 Chapin Way Oswego, IL	4.0	3.5	2415	$3,500	$1.45	20d	1	1.33mi
3907 Nannyberry St Naperville, IL	4.0	3.5	4400	$6,800	$1.55	45d	1	1.34mi
3628 Birch Ln Naperville, IL	4.0	2.5	2697	$4,200	$1.56	17d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   listed Contingent - No Showings
3. 2026-03-11
   listed $673,135

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,706
• − Property taxes: −$10,097
• − Insurance: −$3,366
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,128
• − Management: −$4,128
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$19,582
• Taxable loss: −$28,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,756
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: CUSD 308
• NCES district ID: 1730270
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $89,945
• Composite: 31.25/100
• National rank: #6028
• State rank: #179 of 620 in IL

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #4272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, IL
• County: Will County · 412,448 people
• City population: 186,692
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 16,789
• Household income: $136,726
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 19.0

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Asian 19% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scandinavian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.31%
• Current HPI: 232.382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $673,135 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid