1028 Mueller St · Bairdford, PA 15044

$59,700

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,554 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 336 Days on market

Built 1920 10,001 sqft lot $38/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cape cod with a large eat in kitchen and generous room sizes.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 336 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,061 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Deer Lakes SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #182 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $413 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $60k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $52,536 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.22%
• DSCR: 4.75
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,667
• List price: $59,700
• Delta: -68.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Bairdford Rd	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,606 (+3%)	12mo	$180,000	$112	76
336 Oak Rd	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,372 (-12%)	16mo	$180,851	$132	62
213 Orchard St	0.38mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-8%)	10mo	$195,000	$137	52
248 Ash Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-12%)	15mo	$135,000	$99	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $65,180
• Equity at exit: $8,901

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.18×
• Total profit: $153,504
• Equity at exit: $5,162

Cash invested: $16,716 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15044

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$313
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,784/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $1,173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $721

Max offer price $59,700

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,372	-5% $1,190	+0% $1,173	+5% $1,156	+10% $1,139
Rent	-10% $999	-5% $1,086	+0% $1,173	+5% $1,260	+10% $1,348
Rate	-1.0pp $1,203	-0.5pp $1,188	base $1,173	+0.5pp $1,158	+1.0pp $1,142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,925
• Closing costs: $1,791
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 61-char remark

   Show marketing remark (61 chars)

   Cape cod with a large eat in kitchen and generous room sizes.

2. 2025-08-04
   price $59,700 61-char remark

   Show marketing remark (61 chars)

   Cape cod with a large eat in kitchen and generous room sizes.

3. 2025-07-21
   price $64,700 61-char remark

   Show marketing remark (61 chars)

   Cape cod with a large eat in kitchen and generous room sizes.

4. 2025-06-13
   listed $69,000 Active 61-char remark

   Show marketing remark (61 chars)

   Cape cod with a large eat in kitchen and generous room sizes.

5. 2024-09-04
   soldstatus $25,000
6. 1994-09-27
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,784 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,784 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,344
• − Property taxes: −$2,784
• − Insurance: −$298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − Depreciation: −$1,737
• Taxable income: $14,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,379
• After-tax cash flow: $10,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Lakes SD
• NCES district ID: 4207540
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $57,944
• Composite: 42.64/100
• National rank: #3183
• State rank: #182 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bairdford

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1061
• US rank: #11993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bairdford, PA
• City population: 116
• Population (ZIP): 27,844

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.02%
• Current HPI: 268.5433
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+99.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $59,700 West Penn MLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $64,700 West Penn MLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $69,000 West Penn MLS
• 2024-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,784 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.