5138 Cassidy Pass Dr #38 · Beckett Ridge, OH 45011

$198,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Condo public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1989 $300/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great condo in a very convenient area. Minutes from Union Center Blvd/I-75 and I-275. 2 bed, 2 full bath with kitchen/dining combo. Spacious family room with skylight/balcony access add lots of natural light. Newer flooring and paint. In unit laundry. Balcony redone in 2021. One car garage with one additional assigned parking spot.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Community pool
• Private balcony

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning
• HOA & community: HOA present; owner pays HOA; HOA fee approximately $300 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 assigned garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Traditional style; One level unit in a 2-story building; Unit entry on level 2
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Slider and vinyl windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on level 1, approximately 16 x 14; Second bedroom on level 1, approximately 14 x 12
• Flooring: Laminate flooring in living room
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on level 2)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Skylight; Fireplace (wood); Common hallway entry; Laundry in unit
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry room (about 7 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-844/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#479 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lakota Local (suburban): math 68% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #107 of 656 in OH (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Freedom Elementary School (math 72% / reading 70%, grade A-, #371 of 1,584 statewide, top 24%, 677 students, 29% FRL); Lakota Ridge Junior School (math 56% / reading 68%, grade B+, #242 of 654 statewide, top 38%, 679 students, 30% FRL); Lakota West High School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #164 of 781 statewide, top 24%, 2,740 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,578 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-36,486
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-37,228
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45011

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,215/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,032

Max offer price $185,578

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-14	+0% $-70	+5% $-126	+10% $-182
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-147	+0% $-70	+5% $6	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-20	base $-70	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5215 Westwind Ave Hamilton, OH	3.0	2.5	1315	$1,790	$1.36	5d	1	0.21mi
9050 W Chester Blvd West Chester, OH	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,192	$2.24	5d	24	1.03mi
9365 Clocktower Sq West Chester Township, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1172	$2,775	$2.37	3d	47	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: parking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $198,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,215 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$437/yr (+$36/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$2,215
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$4,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$977
• After-tax cash flow: $133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakota Local
• NCES district ID: 3904611
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $90,743
• Composite: 63.25/100
• National rank: #631
• State rank: #107 of 656 in OH

Livability — Beckett Ridge

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #7982

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 75,864
• Household income: $91,873
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1795.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.67%
• Current HPI: 259.7868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+250.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $198,000 Cincy MLS
• 2025-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-26 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Cincy MLS
• 2025-01-22 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2025-01-20 Listed $172,000 Cincy MLS
• 2020-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-25 Sold (MLS) $58,000 Cincy MLS
• 2012-09-29 Listed $65,000 Cincy MLS
• 1994-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,215 · +22.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.