2721 Holman St · Moraine, OH 45439

$112,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1958 5,998 sqft lot Est $105k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Court Ordered Sale by Private Selling Officer. All information we have on the property is included. We have no additional information, property condition is unknown. NO SHOWINGS, NO trespassing for any reason. Auction ends November 18, 2025 & is online only. Information is thought to be correct but not guaranteed. 10% Buyer Premium added to the high bid, $5,000 deposit is due within 24 hours of bidding end.

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• 5,998 sq ft lot
• Pool

Tags

• LARGE FENCED YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO INTERSTATE
• SHOPPING WITHIN A FEW MILES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 5.5% in Moraine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,167 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kettering City School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #277 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $778 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $112k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,375 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.39%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,640
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2721 Holman St	0.00mi	3/1.5	960 (0%)	1mo	$105,000	$109	97
2629 Holman St	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,008 (+5%)	4mo	$77,220	$77	82
2744 Holman St	0.06mi	3/1.0	952 (-1%)	21mo	$185,000	$194	78
2637 Holman St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+9%)	9mo	$170,000	$162	74
2616 Gladstone St	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,030 (+7%)	13mo	$70,000	$68	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,857
• Equity at exit: $16,774

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $36,180
• Equity at exit: $9,727

Cash invested: $31,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45439

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$590
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,699/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $985

Max offer price $112,500

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $442	-5% $410	+0% $378	+5% $346	+10% $314
Rent	-10% $262	-5% $320	+0% $378	+5% $436	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $406	base $378	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,125
• Closing costs: $3,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Cadillac St Moraine, OH	3.0	1.0	748	$1,295	$1.73	3d	1	0.16mi
3929 Fulton Ave Moraine, OH	2.0	1.0	788	$750	$0.95	19d	1	1.02mi
3924 Fulton Ave Moraine, OH	3.0	1.0	813	$1,800	$2.21	3d	1	1.05mi
4217 Fulton Ave Moraine, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$1,325	$1.66	44d	1	1.09mi
4042 Ellery Ave Moraine, OH	3.0	1.0	720	$1,195	$1.66	44d	1	1.12mi
3657 Elmira Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	936	$1,450	$1.55	44d	1	1.25mi
3928 Elmira Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,550	$1.49	3d	1	1.26mi
3781 Keswick Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,750	$1.68	3d	1	1.40mi
1643 Archdeacon Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,450	$1.39	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-16
   status Active
3. 2026-02-16
   price $112,500
4. 2026-02-14
   status Active
5. 2026-02-10
   historical
6. 2026-01-27
   price $120,000
7. 2026-01-22
   historical ActiveUnderContract
8. 2026-01-21
   price $112,500
9. 2025-11-19
   listed $120,000 Active
10. 2025-11-17
    historical 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Court Ordered Sale by Private Selling Officer. All information we have on the property is included. We have no additional information, property condition is unknown. NO SHOWINGS, NO trespassing for any reason. Auction ends November 18, 2025 & is online only. Information is thought to be correct but not guaranteed. 10% Buyer Premium added to the high bid, $5,000 deposit is due within 24 hours of bidding end.

11. 2025-11-10
    listed $1 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Court Ordered Sale by Private Selling Officer. All information we have on the property is included. We have no additional information, property condition is unknown. NO SHOWINGS, NO trespassing for any reason. Auction ends November 18, 2025 & is online only. Information is thought to be correct but not guaranteed. 10% Buyer Premium added to the high bid, $5,000 deposit is due within 24 hours of bidding end.

12. 2006-12-26
    soldstatus $55,900
13. 2006-08-30
    soldstatus $55,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,699 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,727 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$28/yr (+$2/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,302
• − Property taxes: −$1,699
• − Insurance: −$562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$3,273
• Taxable income: $2,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$700
• After-tax cash flow: $3,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kettering City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904418
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,353
• Composite: 51.89/100
• National rank: #1653
• State rank: #277 of 656 in OH

Livability — Moraine

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1167
• US rank: #25010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moraine, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 11,914
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 11,914
• Household income: $52,035
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 381.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.06%
• Current HPI: 287.2064
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+101.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $112,500 Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-14 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $120,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-22 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $112,500 Dayton MLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $120,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $1 Cincy MLS
• 2006-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records
• 2006-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,699 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.