20707 Redbud Trl · Atascocita, TX 77346

$285,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,965 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1995 5,662 sqft lot Est $297k · at est. $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4 bed 2.5 bath 1965 sq ft home with private pool & spa in Kings River Village cul-de-sac offers formal dining, 2 living areas, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and breakfast nook. Primary bedroom located on main floor has dual vanities and a garden tub. Close to area amenities such as Lake Houston, walking trails, boat ramp, and fishing pier. Never flooded.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• 5,662 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• IN GROUND SWIMMING POOL
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by First Service Residential; Annual association fee of $535

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1995; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool; Located in a cul-de-sac within a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x13); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (11x10, 11x12, 11x10)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Dishwasher, Disposal, Gas Oven, Gas Range, Microwave; Laminate and tile flooring; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greentree El (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 674 students, 23% FRL); Creekwood Middle (math 49% / reading 50%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 1,149 students, 21% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,375 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,715
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19835 Emerald Bend Way	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,989 (+1%)	1mo	$264,390	$133	79
19827 Emerald Bend Way	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,989 (+1%)	2mo	$298,840	$150	78
19918 Emerald Bend Way	0.46mi	4/2.5	1,989 (+1%)	1mo	$307,740	$155	76
20923 Lake Park Trl Trl	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,056 (+5%)	1mo	$285,000	$139	72
20507 Delta Wood Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,164 (+10%)	0mo	$320,000	$148	69
7410 Crown Maples Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,011 (+2%)	2mo	$377,650	$188	67
19834 Emerald Bend Way	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,107 (+7%)	2mo	$304,490	$145	62
20310 Umber Oak Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,148 (+9%)	2mo	$324,900	$151	62
19831 Emerald Bend Way	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,727 (-12%)	2mo	$284,140	$165	55
19839 Emerald Bend Way	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,727 (-12%)	2mo	$268,140	$155	54
19823 Emerald Bend Way	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,727 (-12%)	3mo	$272,140	$158	54
20215 Glen Burn Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,209 (+12%)	0mo	$299,900	$136	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,226
• Equity at exit: $69,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-70,367
• Equity at exit: $73,435

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$545 /mo · $6,540/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,789

Max offer price $227,375

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-165	-5% $-246	+0% $-326	+5% $-407	+10% $-488
Rent	-10% $-514	-5% $-420	+0% $-326	+5% $-232	+10% $-138
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-254	base $-326	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	24d	1	0.01mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	24d	1	0.10mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	24d	1	0.17mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	0.26mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	45d	1	0.27mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	7d	1	0.33mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	0d	14	0.43mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	45d	1	0.85mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	7d	1	1.04mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	45d	1	1.09mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	45d	1	1.14mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	0d	1	1.14mi
5419 Deer Timbers Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,705	$1.30	24d	1	1.21mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	45d	1	1.23mi
4855 Magnolia Cove Dr Unit 3174 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,830	$1.45	13d	1	1.28mi
4855 Magnolia Cove Dr Unit 4888 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,145	$1.70	45d	1	1.28mi
4855 Magnolia Cove Dr Unit 3112 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,779	$1.41	0d	1	1.28mi
4920 Magnolia Cove Dr Unit 4953 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,885	$1.38	45d	1	1.42mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	7d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 609-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $285,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,540 · $545/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,540 · $545/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$6,540
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,281
• − Management: −$2,281
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$8,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,114
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+57.5% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-31 Rental Removed $2,450 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-05-28 Rental Removed $2,450 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $2,450 HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $2,450 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $2,525 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $2,525 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-04-04 Listed for Rent $2,600 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-04-03 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-17 Listed $279,999 HARMLS
• 2017-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-10-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-10-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-09-26 Price Changed $216,999 HARMLS
• 2017-09-16 Price Changed $218,000 HARMLS
• 2017-08-22 Price Changed $224,999 HARMLS
• 2017-08-11 Listed $233,900 HARMLS
• 2013-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-09-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-09-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-09-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-08-25 Price Changed $173,000 HARMLS
• 2013-08-03 Price Changed $178,000 HARMLS
• 2013-06-28 Listed $181,000 HARMLS
• 2002-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,540 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.