Is 525 Wax Myrtle Way in Hockley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.1% cap rate and $-557/mo modeled cash flow at a $260,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 525 Wax Myrtle Way?

The modeled cap rate is 4.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,065/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 28.31

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.2/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$260,000

525 Wax Myrtle Way · Hockley, TX 77447

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 1.00 ac lot 2-car garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Denton Plan located in Maple Woods. This single-story house spans 1,559 square feet and includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. As you enter this home, you will notice two secondary bedrooms that share access to a secondary bathroom. Each of the bedrooms have carpet flooring, a bright window, and a tall closet while the bathroom has a vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo. Continuing through the home, you will see a utility room on your right. The location of the utility room is in perfect proximity to the other secondary rooms of the house, and it has vinyl flooring.

Key facts

Spacious island
Quartz countertops
One story home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-557 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (12.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (20.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $207k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,508 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 4.13%
Cash-on-cash: -7.72%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $309,490
List price: $260,000
Delta: -15.99%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
544 Wax Myrtle Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+0%)	2mo	$290,990	$185	98
529 Wax Myrtle Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-4%)	0mo	$249,900	$166	93
256 Elm Spring Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-2%)	3mo	$252,990	$164	91
124 Rising Cedar Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+1%)	1mo	$224,900	$142	90
237 Elm Spring Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-2%)	6mo	$257,990	$168	89
225 Elm Spring Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+1%)	1mo	$268,900	$170	88
412 Pine Branch Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-5%)	2mo	$239,990	$161	87
101 Rising Cedar Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-5%)	5mo	$249,990	$168	84
25808 Robin Hood Ln	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+14%)	12mo	$375,000	$209	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.2%
Equity multiple: -0.06×
Total profit: $-91,642
Equity at exit: $46,146

10-year hold

IRR: -63.2%
Equity multiple: -0.72×
Total profit: $-148,651
Equity at exit: $26,759

Cash invested: $86,657 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 26 active · 12 under contract
Months of supply: 15.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $267,950 ($162/sqft)
Median days on market: 111 d
This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +21.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

Home prices YoY: -31.1%
Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 2407
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,065 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,623
Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,642/yr
Insurance: −$129
HOA: −$50
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
Net cashflow: $-557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,771

Max offer price $228,833

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-344	-5% $-450	+0% $-557	+5% $-664	+10% $-771
Rent	-10% $-721	-5% $-639	+0% $-557	+5% $-476	+10% $-394
Rate	-1.0pp $-402	-0.5pp $-479	base $-557	+0.5pp $-638	+1.0pp $-719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $77,372
Closing costs: $9,285
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Property is in a subdivision
HOA & community: Association: Goodwin & CoAnnual association fee of $600

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
Security: Home prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2026)South-facing
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by D.R. Horton
Exterior features: Covered patioPatio and deckPrivate backyardSprinkler/irrigation systemBack yard fencing

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 13)Additional bedrooms on the first floor (14 x 10; 8 x 6)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: High ceilingsProgrammable thermostatVentilation for improved indoor air qualitySeller disclosure available
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $260,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $260,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $260,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $260,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $260,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $260,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $260,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $260,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $260,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $260,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $260,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $260,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $260,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $260,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $260,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $260,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $260,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $260,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $260,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $260,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $260,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $260,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $260,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $260,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $260,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $260,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $260,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $260,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-08-17

pricedays on market $260,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $265,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $265,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $265,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $265,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $265,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $265,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $265,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $265,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,781
− Mortgage interest: −$17,336
− Property taxes: −$4,642
− Insurance: −$1,547
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,982
− Management: −$1,982
− HOA: −$600
− Depreciation: −$9,003
Taxable loss: −$12,313

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,955
After-tax cash flow: $-3,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor updates such as painting and flooring changes.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile to increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can enhance safety and curb appeal, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑
Both Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 60,772 people
City population: 25,231
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 25,231
Household income: $116,925
Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
Current HPI: 249.6969
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

2026-07-08 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
2026-06-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-06-02 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
2026-06-02 Listed $293,990 HARMLS
2026-05-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-10 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
2026-02-24 Price Changed $278,990 HARMLS
2026-02-18 Price Changed $288,990 HARMLS
2025-11-19 Listed $302,990 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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