513 Springhill Dr · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40503

$375,750

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,846 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1954 0.28 ac lot Est $507k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of this classic brick ranch, ideally situated on a generous and level 0.28-acre lot in Lexington's established Lafayette neighborhood. Built in 1954, this home offers 2,010 square feet of living space, including four bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing a solid foundation for customization and updates. The layout supports comfortable everyday living, with ample space to reimagine and make your own. A partial basement adds approximately 924 square feet, offering options for storage, a workshop, or future finished living space. Located in southwest Lexington, the home provides convenient access to major roadways, downtown, the University of Kentucky, hospitals, pa

Key facts

• Partial basement
• Convenient access
• Level lot

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• LEVEL LOT
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• LAFAYETTE NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.283 acres (per appraiser); Building area reported as 2,010

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Property has a garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available
• Home design: House; Single-story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Block foundation; Dimensional-style roof
• Exterior features: Workshop; Few trees on the lot; Neighborhood view; Chain link and privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with floor furnace and forced air; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace; Storm windows, blinds, and screens; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer listed among appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $376k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $368k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $368k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picadome Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 430 students, 56% FRL); Morton Middle School (math 41% / reading 58%, grade C, #25 of 217 statewide, top 12%, 705 students, 43% FRL); Lafayette High School (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #10 of 254 statewide, top 4%, 2,432 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,678/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1151% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $367,791 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.48%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $506,588
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
720 Lynn Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,797 (-2%)	18mo	$370,000	$132	61
427 Springhill Dr	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,653 (-7%)	3mo	$495,000	$187	61
530 Mccubbing Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,458 (-14%)	14mo	$550,000	$224	59
518 Arcadia Park	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,766 (-3%)	7mo	$591,000	$214	58
292 Rosemont Gdn	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,680 (-6%)	4mo	$420,100	$157	55
1804 Clays Mill Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,475 (-13%)	23mo	$367,000	$148	50
1716 Chandler Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,461 (-14%)	5mo	$439,000	$178	49
337 Arcadia Park	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,643 (-7%)	8mo	$575,000	$218	48
691 Springhurst Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	3,072 (+8%)	13mo	$312,000	$102	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-14,046
• Equity at exit: $56,026

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $63,065
• Equity at exit: $32,488

Cash invested: $105,210 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40503

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,970
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,477/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$772
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,848

Max offer price $375,750

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,938
• Closing costs: $11,272
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1570 Bluebird Ln Lexington, KY	5.0	5.0	2255	$5,000	$2.22	23d	1	0.46mi
1220 Hammond Ave Lexington, KY	4.0	2.0	1949	$1,850	$0.95	14d	1	1.36mi
2505 Eastway Dr Lexington, KY	4.0	3.5	3068	$4,200	$1.37	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $375,750 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-03
   listed $375,750 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,477 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,231 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,755/yr (+$146/mo · 118.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,048
• − Property taxes: −$1,477
• − Insurance: −$1,879
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,531
• − Management: −$3,531
• − Depreciation: −$10,931
• Taxable income: $1,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$417
• After-tax cash flow: $7,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 27,451
• Household income: $76,482
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1151.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.10%
• Current HPI: 241.5612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.40%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $375,750 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2015): $1,477 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.