12512 23rd St E · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$389,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,043 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2006 7,153 sqft lot Est $417k · 7% under $106/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * 12512 23rd Street E, Parrish, FL 34219 * * Welcome home to this beautifully maintained split-floorplan residence in the highly sought-after River Plantation community! Offering the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and Florida lifestyle, this home features major updates including a * * 2021 roof * * , * * 2018 A/C system * * , and a * * tankless water heater * * , providing peace of mind for years to come. Inside, you'll find spacious living areas designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The desirable split-bedroom layout offers privacy for the owner's suite while providing comfortable accommodations for family and guests. The open-concept design flows se

Key facts

• Fitness center
• 2021 roof
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• 2021 ROOF
• 2018 A/C SYSTEM
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $100); Association approval required; HOA covers pool, grounds maintenance and recreational facilities; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, basketball court, playground, park, trails, dog park, irrigation with reclaimed water, maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community (association amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Fiber optics available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residence faces north; Completed condition; Residential zoning (PDR/CH/N)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as existing (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear screened porch; Hurricane shutters; Mature landscaping; Near golf course; Sidewalks; Paved roads; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-263/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,880 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $416,772
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2350 126th Dr E	0.18mi	3/2.0	2,059 (+1%)	8mo	$390,000	$189	84
2302 123rd Pl E	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,163 (+6%)	8mo	$360,000	$166	75
2808 124th Ave E	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,067 (+1%)	9mo	$420,000	$203	68
2371 123rd Pl E	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,180 (+7%)	8mo	$380,000	$174	66
2363 123rd Pl E	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,180 (+7%)	6mo	$575,000	$264	66
2411 129th Ave E	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,203 (+8%)	2mo	$408,000	$185	64
2820 124th Ave E	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,836 (-10%)	1mo	$465,000	$253	62
2720 124th Ave E	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,219 (+9%)	1mo	$515,000	$232	59
12851 24th Street Cir E	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,831 (-10%)	8mo	$379,000	$207	56
2924 122nd Pl E	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,830 (-10%)	2mo	$359,900	$197	55
12375 30th St E	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,877 (-8%)	8mo	$382,000	$204	54
12565 30th Street Cir E	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,288 (+12%)	4mo	$514,000	$225	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-73,601
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-101,341
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,099 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,943/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,127

Max offer price $385,123

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $88	+0% $-22	+5% $-132	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-144	+0% $-22	+5% $100	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $77	base $-22	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12250 23rd St E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2261	$2,670	$1.18	4d	1	0.36mi
2910 122nd Ter E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$3,300	$1.80	24d	1	0.59mi
3511 Wild Blossom Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	13d	1	0.96mi
3704 Wild Blossom Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2810	$3,600	$1.28	24d	1	1.05mi
3775 Manorwood Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2122	$3,300	$1.56	17d	1	1.10mi
13744 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2274	$3,000	$1.32	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $389,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,229 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,285/yr (+$107/mo · 66.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$1,943
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,975
• − Management: −$2,975
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$7,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,687
• After-tax cash flow: $1,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-30.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-10 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $560,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,943 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.