5291 Berry Bay Ave · Wimauma, FL 33598

$379,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,453 sqft · Land · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 4,800 sqft lot $8/mo HOA ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The builder is offering buyers up to $25,000 towards closing costs with the use of a preferred lender and title company. Located off US-301 and showcasing new homes in Wimauma, Berry Bay is one of the newest communities in the area. Just minutes from I-75, providing quick access to St. Pete, Downtown Tampa, Sarasota, as well as the bay. Berry Bay will feature a new homes lineup of our Express and Preferred series throughout the community. Berry Bay features include extended luxury vinyl in the main living and dining area, a stainless-steel appliance package, quartz countertops in the kitchen, all concrete block construction on the 1st and 2nd stories, and Smart Home syst

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Smart home system
• 4,800 sq ft lot

Tags

• EXTENDED LUXURY VINYL
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• SMART HOME SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Home warranty available; Lot size approximately 0.11 acres; Paved road access; Permit number: 26-0081703; Zoning: PD/PD
• Financial info: Other annual assessment amount $2,490; Total annual fees $96
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Inframark; Monthly HOA dues of $8 (total monthly fees $8); Association amenities: clubhouse, playground, pool; Deed-restricted community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Faces northeast; Under construction (projected completion 2026-11-30)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: D.R. Horton; Builder model: Robie II; Builder license: CBC039052; Year built: projected 2026
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Pool (other type)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Blinds; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-947/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Wimauma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#699 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reddick Elementary School (math 34% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 794 students, 78% FRL); Jule F Sumner High School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 3,827 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $297,877 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-64,914
• Equity at exit: $67,818

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-87,845
• Equity at exit: $52,349

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,277/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,079

Max offer price $366,050

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $29	+0% $-79	+5% $-186	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-197	+0% $-79	+5% $39	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $18	base $-79	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3160 Oyster Cove St Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1925	$2,350	$1.22	24d	1	0.28mi
5517 Blue Azure Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,450	$1.33	24d	1	0.37mi
5517 Blue Azure Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,450	$1.33	15d	1	0.37mi
5375 Blue Horizon Way Wimauma, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,000	$0.90	2d	1	0.39mi
2881 Silver Scallop Loop Wimauma, FL	6.0	3.0	3130	$2,900	$0.93	24d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $379,990 Pending 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,990 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,990 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,990 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $379,990 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $379,990 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $387,990 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $387,990 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $387,990 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $387,990 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-05-13
    listed $387,990 Active 235-char remark
12. 2026-04-23
    listed $387,990 Active 1159-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,277 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,277 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$3,277
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,860
• − Management: −$2,860
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$7,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,821
• After-tax cash flow: $874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wimauma

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #699
• US rank: #14659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wimauma, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 32,820
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $379,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $387,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid