5 Nelson Trl · Roche Harbor, WA 98250

$2,249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition 3.18 ac lot $1138/sqft · 20% above area Est $1872k · 20% over $300/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A rare opportunity to experience the coveted Henry Island lifestyle—just minutes from Roche Harbor—this exceptional turnkey retreat offers privacy, comfort, and stunning natural beauty. The beautifully remodeled main residence features 3 bedrooms, a loft, and 2 baths, anchored by a custom gourmet kitchen and expansive ironwood decks—perfect for entertaining or unwinding in a serene island setting. A separate, fully updated 1,100 sq ft guest cottage includes 1 bedroom, a loft, and 1.5 baths, providing ideal accommodations for guests or extended stays. Both homes come furnished for your convenience. Set on a picturesque, treed property, the offering includes access to a wate

Key facts

• Infrared sauna
• Deep water dock
• 3.18 acre lot

Tags

• CUSTOM GOURMET KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE IRONWOOD DECKS
• FULLY UPDATED GUEST COTTAGE
• WATERFRONT COMMON AREA
• DEEP WATER DOCK
• INFRARED SAUNA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property accessed by boat; shown by appointment; Lot is wooded and includes lots 4 & 5 and interest in 6; Topography: partial slope; On waterfront (saltwater)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($3,600) covering common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Private water (desalination); OPALCO power; Septic tank sewage; Energy sources: Electric, Propane, Wood
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-and-one-half story; Built on lot; Northeast-facing; Has view; Very good condition; Roche Harbor Shores community
• Construction: Wood construction; Metal roof; Poured concrete foundation; Effective year built 2023
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Dock and moorage; Outbuildings; Propane on site

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total (2 on main level, 1 upper) — potential for 4 bedrooms; Accessory dwelling unit with 2 beds
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 main level, 1 upper); Accessory dwelling unit with 2 baths
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating; No central cooling listed
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood burning); Hot tub / spa; Loft; Sauna; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Water heater (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.25M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $2.25M).
• Recommended offer: $2.18M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 0.5% in Roche Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Island School District (rural): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #36 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Friday Harbor Elementary School (321 students, 38% FRL); Friday Harbor High School (245 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $16k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $67k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $2,181,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.45%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,872,133
• List price: $2,249,000
• Delta: 20.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Smuggler's Rowe - LOT 32	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,785 (-10%)	12mo	$2,295,000	$1,286	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-114,992
• Equity at exit: $335,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $222,623
• Equity at exit: $194,452

Cash invested: $629,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98250

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,794
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,811 /mo · $33,735/yr
• Insurance: −$937
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $3,908

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,054

Max offer price $2,249,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $562,250
• Closing costs: $67,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Cobblestone Ln Friday Harbor, WA	3.0	3.5	1820	$25,000	$13.74	44d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,249,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,249,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,249,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,249,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,249,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,249,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $2,249,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,249,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,249,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $2,249,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $2,249,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,450,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,450,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,450,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,450,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $2,450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥77°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$125,979
• − Property taxes: −$33,735
• − Insurance: −$11,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$65,425
• Taxable income: $12,016
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,884
• After-tax cash flow: $44,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This turnkey retreat offers a stunning natural setting with a custom gourmet kitchen and fully updated bathrooms. The property is in good condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and natural beauty
• Both Painting exterior trim — Improves curb appeal and maintains property value
• Both Landscaping around the guest cottage — Enhances the overall property appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and natural beauty ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Improves curb appeal and maintains property value ↑
• Both Landscaping around the guest cottage — Enhances the overall property appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5307650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,476
• Composite: 56.64/100
• National rank: #2434
• State rank: #36 of 291 in WA

Livability — Roche Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,127

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,439 people
• By 2030: 17,871 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 18,236 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 18,468 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 19,749 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 20,348 · +16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.4) · D 73.7% · R 22.3% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.9pp · 2024: 51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.4 2020: D+50.5 2016: D+41.6 2012: D+37.5 2008: D+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.89%
• Current HPI: 187.6787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $2,249,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $2,249,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $2,450,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid