22481 Beaver Creek Ln · Orange Beach, AL 36561

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2004 9,539 sqft lot $210/sqft · at area comps Est $365k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home in a convenient location, easy access to Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, very close to the Wharf and Gulf Beaches. This nice neighborhood is very quiet and tidy with a Pool and Clubhouse. This house is one of the larger homes with an extra large lot in Cul-De -Sac.

Key facts

• Kitchen appliances
• Community pool
• Backyard

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• CUL-DE-SAC
• BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• WOODED VIEW
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: Resale
• HOA & community: Quarterly association fee ($180); Association covers management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, common area taxes, and pool; Outdoor community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached double garage with automatic door (2 covered spaces)
• Utilities: Public water (Orange Beach Water Authority); Public sewer; Electric service by Baldwin EMC
• Home design: One-story home; Resale property; Levels: One
• Construction: Brick and wood frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,785 square feet
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch and open porch; Termite contract; Fenced yard; Located on a cul-de-sac; Community/association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator with ice maker; Breakfast area open to kitchen / breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet (approx. 17 x 13); Second bedroom (approx. 13 x 11); Third bedroom (approx. 13 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); En-suite; Vaulted ceilings; Jetted tub and separate shower in primary bath; Single vanity in primary bath; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-226/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 0.2% in Orange Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in AL, #3,891 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $375k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,129 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,760
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: 2.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22473 Beaver Creek Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+1%)	4mo	$315,000	$174	92
22474 Beaver Creek Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,698 (-5%)	3mo	$380,000	$224	87
22453 Beaver Creek Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,667 (-7%)	4mo	$300,000	$180	78
22413 Bobcat Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-7%)	3mo	$365,000	$220	77
22455 Beaver Creek Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-9%)	2mo	$355,000	$219	76
22422 Beaver Creek Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-7%)	13mo	$359,900	$216	68
22431 Beaver Creek Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-13%)	2mo	$299,900	$192	66
22435 Beaver Creek Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,630 (-9%)	13mo	$387,000	$237	64
4608 Coral Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+6%)	20mo	$540,000	$285	40
22411 Geno Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-5%)	20mo	$760,000	$450	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-62,089
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-56,113
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36561

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,911 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $834/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,935

Max offer price $371,673

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22413 Bobcat Ln Orange Beach, AL	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	44d	1	0.21mi
23957 Village Cut Dr Orange Beach, AL	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,800	$2.12	21d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $375,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $375,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $375,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $375,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $375,000 Active 2017-char remark
19. 2016-02-12
    soldstatus $145,000
20. 2016-02-08
    soldstatus $145,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Great home in a convenient location, easy access to Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, very close to the Wharf and Gulf Beaches. This nice neighborhood is very quiet and tidy with a Pool and Clubhouse. This house is one of the larger homes with an extra large lot in Cul-De -Sac.

21. 2015-11-23
    listed $154,900 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    Great home in a convenient location, easy access to Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, very close to the Wharf and Gulf Beaches. This nice neighborhood is very quiet and tidy with a Pool and Clubhouse. This house is one of the larger homes with an extra large lot in Cul-De -Sac.

22. 2013-08-12
    soldstatus $132,097
23. 2013-08-02
    soldstatus $132,500

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Great Home in a convenient location. Easy access to Orange Beach and Gulf Shores. Very close to The Wharf. Three Bedroom Two Bath Brick home in Orange Beach. Large Lot. Community Pool. All information and measurements are approximate, not guaranteed. Purchaser should verify.

24. 2013-05-10
    listed $132,500

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Great Home in a convenient location. Easy access to Orange Beach and Gulf Shores. Very close to The Wharf. Three Bedroom Two Bath Brick home in Orange Beach. Large Lot. Community Pool. All information and measurements are approximate, not guaranteed. Purchaser should verify.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $834 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,538 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 84.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$834
• − Insurance: −$2,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,795
• − Management: −$2,795
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$6,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,631
• After-tax cash flow: $1,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Orange Beach

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3891

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange Beach, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 9,528
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 9,528
• Household income: $98,295
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.50%
• Current HPI: 270.8382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+183.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $375,000 BCAR
• 2016-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-08 Sold (MLS) $145,000 BCAR
• 2015-11-23 Listed $154,900 BCAR
• 2013-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $132,097 Public Records
• 2013-08-02 Sold (MLS) $132,500 BCAR
• 2013-05-10 Listed $132,500 BCAR

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $834 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.