22115 Jay Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,487 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2000 7,453 sqft lot $131/sqft · 9% below area Est $213k · 9% under $24/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this perfectly situated 3 bedroom / 2 bath brick, single story home in the well established Post wood community. Featuring high ceilings throughout & New carpet. This open concept home boasts a spacious living room that is open to breakfast area with a cozy fireplace. The split floor plan offers a large primary bedroom boasting a private en-suite bathroom and walk in closet. The two large secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom providing space and privacy for family or guests. Relax in your beautiful fully fenced backyard complete with a patio and mature trees providing plenty of shade for endless entertainment. NO REAR NEIGHBORS offers complete privacy! This home is the complete package with a 2-car garage & a convenient location. MOTIVATED SELLER!

Key facts

• 7,453 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anderson El (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,768 of 4,322 statewide, top 65%, 501 students, 81% FRL); Edward Roberson Middle (math 42% / reading 59%, grade C, #333 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 791 students, 78% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $195k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.20%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,461
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -8.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5603 Rivergate Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+3%)	20mo	$190,000	$124	56
5715 Walnutgate Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+5%)	4mo	$220,000	$141	53
4910 Broadmark Ln	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,648 (+11%)	9mo	$216,999	$132	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,332
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,398
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,267/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $337	+0% $282	+5% $227	+10% $172
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $189	+0% $282	+5% $374	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $331	base $282	+0.5pp $231	+1.0pp $180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $195,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Welcome home to this perfectly situated 3 bedroom / 2 bath brick, single story home in the well established Post wood community. Featuring high ceilings throughout & New carpet. This open concept home boasts a spacious living room that is open to breakfast area with a cozy fireplace. The split floor plan offers a large primary bedroom boasting a private en-suite bathroom and walk in closet. The two large secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom providing space and privacy for family or guests. Relax in your beautiful fully fenced backyard complete with a patio and mature trees providing plenty of shade for endless entertainment. NO REAR NEIGHBORS offers complete privacy! This home is the complete package with a 2-car garage & a convenient location. MOTIVATED SELLER!

17. 2025-12-01
    historical
18. 2025-08-21
    price $194,000
19. 2025-06-16
    price $199,000
20. 2025-06-07
    listed $210,000 Active
21. 2025-06-07
    historical
22. 2025-04-19
    listed $215,000 Active
23. 2025-04-16
    historical
24. 2018-08-24
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2018-08-24
    soldstatus
26. 2018-07-25
    status Pending
27. 2018-07-16
    status Option Pending
28. 2018-06-25
    status Active
29. 2018-06-19
    historical
30. 2018-05-21
    status Active
31. 2018-05-10
    status Option Pending
32. 2018-04-27
    listed $159,000 Active
33. 2001-01-01
    soldstatus $94,429

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,267 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,267 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,267
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,246
• − Management: −$2,246
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $462
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$111
• After-tax cash flow: $3,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+106.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $194,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-07 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2018-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-07-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-06-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-05-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-27 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2001-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $94,429 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,267 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.