14806 Front Beach Rd Lot 79 · Panama City Beach, FL 32413

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Other · 58 Days on market

Built 1969 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lot79, Beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath with extra bonus room and toilet/sink, screened in deck, newly renovated, private beach, pool and lake access, fully furnished, storage shed, security cameras, walk across the street and you’re on the beach, golf cart ready, centrally located to everything Contact me for details 856-230-8233

Key facts

• Pool and lake access
• Private beach
• Storage shed

Tags

• EXTRA BONUS ROOM
• SCREENED IN DECK
• PRIVATE BEACH
• POOL AND LAKE ACCESS
• FULLY FURNISHED
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1249 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.23%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,831
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $29,148
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1249
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $585	+0% $533	+5% $481	+10% $429
Rent	-10% $376	-5% $454	+0% $533	+5% $611	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $609	-0.5pp $571	base $533	+0.5pp $494	+1.0pp $455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Hills Rd Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,175	$2.19	21d	20	0.25mi
231 Poinsettia Dr Unit A Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,500	$1.79	21d	1	0.40mi
505 Anemone St Unit 1511627P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	990	$3,929	$3.97	21d	1	0.64mi
15900 Front Beach Rd Unit 1523329P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$5,592	$6.58	13d	1	0.85mi
509 Lighthouse Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	965	$1,500	$1.55	21d	1	0.93mi
15817 Front Beach Rd Unit 1523369P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	2.0	839	$5,602	$6.68	13d	1	1.19mi
314 Evergreen St Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,800	$1.88	21d	1	1.27mi
400 Crossings Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,610	$1.55	13d	9	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $150,000 Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Lot79, Beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 bath with extra bonus room and toilet/sink, screened in deck, newly renovated, private beach, pool and lake access, fully furnished, storage shed, security cameras, walk across the street and you’re on the beach, golf cart ready, centrally located to everything Contact me for details 856-230-8233

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $5,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This property is in excellent condition with a prime beachfront location, offering both resale and rental potential. Minor improvements in landscaping and painting can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Beachfront renovation — Enhances both resale and rental value due to prime location
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly boost curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Beachfront renovation — Enhances both resale and rental value due to prime location ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly boost curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $150,000 FSBO.com