811 Zephyr St · Plainview, TX 79072

$78,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1963 10,498 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity or starter home in a good neighborhood. This cottage style 3 bedroom, 1 bath with a huge backyard is a blank canvas for all your fixer upper ideas! The big ticket items are done. A new roof will be installed before closing, hardwood floors throughout, central heat and air is only a few years old, and garage has an electric door opener. Call to schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Front porch; Fenced backyard; Corner lot; Paved city street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Range hood; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#393 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, employment D.
• Plainview ISD (town): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #445 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Plainview H S (math 64% / reading 50%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 1,442 students, 78% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 57% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Plainview ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Hale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $545 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hale County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.68%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $3,314
• Equity at exit: $11,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $23,771
• Equity at exit: $6,822

Cash invested: $22,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79072

• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,944/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $770

Max offer price $78,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $297	-5% $274	+0% $252	+5% $230	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $209	+0% $252	+5% $295	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $272	base $252	+0.5pp $231	+1.0pp $211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,725
• Closing costs: $2,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Yonkers St Plainview, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,110	$1.34	44d	12	0.54mi
2302 W 16th St Plainview, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$895	$1.00	44d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 686-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $78,900 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,420
• − Property taxes: −$1,944
• − Insurance: −$394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,046
• − Management: −$1,046
• − Depreciation: −$2,295
• Taxable income: $1,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$462
• After-tax cash flow: $2,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plainview ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835070
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,146
• Composite: 32.85/100
• National rank: #5615
• State rank: #445 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plainview

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #393
• US rank: #8233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plainview, TX
• County: Hale County · 25,389 people
• City population: 25,389
• Metro: Plainview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,389
• Household income: $47,255
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1015.0

Population outlook (Hale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,851 people
• By 2030: 29,158 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 25,681 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 22,420 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 15,857 · -48.6%
• By 2100: 10,500 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 29% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Hale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.5% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -58.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+48.4 2012: R+47.8 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.38%
• Current HPI: 127.9276
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Plainview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+21.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $78,900 LARMLS
• 2020-11-17 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2020-09-25 Listed $64,900 LARMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,944 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.