18242 Blue Lake Way · Boca Raton, FL 33498

$650,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1992 5,639 sqft lot Est $465k · 40% over $151/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to one of Boca Raton's most desirable neighborhoods located in A rated school district. This spacious 3 bedroom 2 bathroom pool home is completely upgraded and ready to move in. Kitchen fully remodeled, 2018 AC unit inside and out, Waterproof laminate in all bedrooms, massive walk in closet in master, salt water pool, accordion shutters for hurricane protection, granite in master bathroom with large soaking tub, & so much more!

Key facts

• Newer a/c system
• Water heater
• Hurricane shutters

Tags

• NEWER A/C SYSTEM
• WATER HEATER
• HURRICANE SHUTTERS
• BUILT-IN CLOSETS
• CUSTOM BLINDS
• WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association (monthly fee); HOA amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, trails, street lights, grounds maintenance, recreation facilities; HOA fee approximately $151 monthly (covers grounds maintenance, common areas, recreation facility, pool service)

Exterior

• Parking: 4 total parking spaces (includes 3 open spaces); Attached garage (1 covered space)
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detectors; Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; One story; Resale condition; Faces southeast; Visitable / accessible kitchen and common areas
• Construction: Block/Concrete/CBS construction; Concrete and tile roof; 1 story
• Exterior features: Open patio; Patio; Gazebo; Fenced yard; Paved road frontage; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms; Accessible bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Accessible common areas and central living area
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedroom layout; Blinds on windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet inside on the main level (in hall)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $561k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $473k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $473k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Boca Raton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Park Elementary School (math 80% / reading 81%, grade A+, #104 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 1,074 students, 23% FRL); Eagles Landing Middle School (math 66% / reading 67%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,508 students, 27% FRL); Olympic Heights Community High (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,602 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 52% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $381k; list at $650k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $472,983 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $464,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10608 180th Pl S	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,857 (-3%)	9mo	$450,000	$242	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $105,719
• Equity at exit: $355,727

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $353,173
• Equity at exit: $603,749

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33498

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,930/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$151
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$993
• Net cashflow: $-505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,369

Max offer price $560,823

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-321	+0% $-505	+5% $-689	+10% $-873
Rent	-10% $-878	-5% $-692	+0% $-505	+5% $-318	+10% $-131
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-339	base $-505	+0.5pp $-673	+1.0pp $-845

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21461 Sawmill Ct Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	2107	$4,100	$1.95	26d	1	0.34mi
10758 Lake Jasmine Dr Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	1927	$4,350	$2.26	26d	1	0.55mi
18474 Old Princeton Ln Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	2330	$4,800	$2.06	15d	1	0.58mi
10781 Cypress Lake Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,600	$2.48	19d	1	0.59mi
10781 Cypress Lake Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,800	$2.62	20d	1	0.59mi
10780 Cypress Lake Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,500	$2.41	9d	1	0.60mi
10766 Crescendo Cir Unit X Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2223	$4,500	$2.02	26d	1	0.84mi
18965 Adagio Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1795	$5,250	$2.92	26d	1	0.91mi
18298 102nd Way S Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1853	$6,500	$3.51	26d	1	1.05mi
9975 Boca Gardens Trl Unit A Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$3,300	$2.59	9d	1	1.40mi
9928 Moss Pond Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$4,500	$2.44	13d	1	1.49mi
9928 Moss Pond Dr Unit 9928 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$4,500	$2.44	16d	1	1.49mi
9928 Moss Pond Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$4,500	$2.44	26d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $151 · $1,812/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $650,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $650,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,930 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,395 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$465/yr (+$39/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$4,930
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,541
• − Management: −$4,541
• − HOA: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$17,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,232
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Boca Raton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #3070

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 250,102
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,853
• Household income: $146,765
• Rent vs Own: 5.3% rent · 94.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 65.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Scotch-Irish 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.68%
• Current HPI: 325.4026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+415.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $650,000 Beaches MLS
• 2019-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $381,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-20 Listed $381,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-20 Sold (MLS) $381,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-20 Sold (MLS) $381,000 Beaches MLS
• 2019-06-02 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-30 Price Changed $384,000 Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-22 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-20 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-14 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-06 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2019-04-30 Listed $384,900 Beaches MLS
• 2017-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $339,900 Public Records
• 2017-03-28 Sold (MLS) $339,900 Beaches MLS
• 2017-02-02 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2017-02-01 Listed $339,900 Beaches MLS
• 1992-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,930 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.