138 Valley St · Springfield, VT 05156

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1890 $87/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Springfield Charmer: This home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, nice kitchen, dining area, living room, laundry area and a den on the main level. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms. There is an enclosed 13x20 rear deck, a mud room, 2 attached sheds and a detached 2-car garage. Oil BBHW heating system, 100 amp electrical service, a drilled well, on site septic, nice garden area and the rear boundry is the Valley St. Brook. It is possible the property may require flood insurance.

Key facts

• New stove
• Remodeled kitchen
• New hood vent

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW STOVE
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW HOOD VENT
• NEW TOILET
• ONE PIECE SHOWER TUB KIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $770 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 5.1% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 125% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $90k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.32%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,186
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -51.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
62 Mark St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+2%)	3mo	$231,500	$219	86
226 Fellows Hill Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+4%)	6mo	$60,000	$56	71
16 Mary St	0.27mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,048 (+2%)	13mo	$201,000	$192	67
10 Curtis St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	998 (-3%)	15mo	$184,500	$185	67
15 Randall St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+12%)	9mo	$160,000	$139	59
8 Curtis St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,154 (+12%)	18mo	$160,000	$139	54
12 Slack Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,071 (+4%)	21mo	$160,000	$149	47
79 Wall St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	925 (-10%)	10mo	$190,000	$205	41
37 Coolidge Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	942 (-8%)	8mo	$193,000	$205	40
2 Woolson Ave	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,136 (+10%)	16mo	$218,000	$192	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $34,519
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $93,443
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05156

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,248/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $821	-5% $796	+0% $770	+5% $745	+10% $719
Rent	-10% $626	-5% $698	+0% $770	+5% $842	+10% $914
Rate	-1.0pp $815	-0.5pp $793	base $770	+0.5pp $747	+1.0pp $723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Park St Apt 2 Springfield, VT	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,645	$1.43	44d	1	0.59mi
104 Park St Apt 4 Springfield, VT	2.0	1.0	950	$1,362	$1.43	44d	1	0.59mi
39 Summit Ave Unit Na Springfield, VT	2.0	2.0	1150	$2,750	$2.39	44d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $90,000 Active 1540-char remark
2. 2021-06-02
   soldstatus $30,000
3. 2021-05-21
   soldstatus $30,000 Closed
4. 2021-05-07
   status Pending
5. 2021-05-04
   listed $40,000 Active
6. 2012-04-23
   soldstatus $46,500
7. 2012-04-20
   soldstatus $46,500

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Springfield Charmer: This home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, nice kitchen, dining area, living room, laundry area and a den on the main level. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms. There is an enclosed 13x20 rear deck, a mud room, 2 attached sheds and a detached 2-car garage. Oil BBHW heating system, 100 amp electrical service, a drilled well, on site septic, nice garden area and the rear boundry is the Valley St. Brook. It is possible the property may require flood insurance.

8. 2011-03-08
   listed $48,000

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Springfield Charmer: This home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, nice kitchen, dining area, living room, laundry area and a den on the main level. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms. There is an enclosed 13x20 rear deck, a mud room, 2 attached sheds and a detached 2-car garage. Oil BBHW heating system, 100 amp electrical service, a drilled well, on site septic, nice garden area and the rear boundry is the Valley St. Brook. It is possible the property may require flood insurance.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$231/yr (+$19/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,248
• − Insurance: −$1,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $8,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,001
• After-tax cash flow: $7,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, VT
• Population (ZIP): 9,028

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Romanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.22%
• Current HPI: 310.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2021-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-21 Sold (MLS) $30,000 PrimeMLS
• 2021-05-07 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2021-05-04 Listed $40,000 PrimeMLS
• 2012-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 2012-04-20 Sold (MLS) $46,500 PrimeMLS
• 2011-03-08 Listed $48,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,248 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.