220 Fondern Dr · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$173,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2014 0.47 ac lot Est $173k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice manufactured home with it's own foundation located in Hope Mills in the Grays Creek School District. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bath with an open floor plan with a large kitchen island. A country fill while still being close to town. There are 2 out building one that has a lean-to and one that is wired but need to reconnect. There home also features a metal carport and it is handicap accessible.

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2014

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2 covered spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water from spring and well; Septic tank and holding tank
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Subdivision: COTTONWOOD; GPS-friendly directions
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Storage; Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Window coverings and blinds; No fireplace; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gray'S Creek Middle (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #215 of 475 statewide, top 46%, 1,126 students, 50% FRL); Gray'S Creek High (math 61% / reading 58%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,395 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,947 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,692
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4783 Madison Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+1%)	10mo	$184,000	$129	74
320 Grummen Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+5%)	8mo	$169,900	$115	72
311 Grummen Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+4%)	22mo	$180,000	$123	62
4904 Madison Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+13%)	13mo	$116,000	$73	42
5391 Satisfaction Pl Pl	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,307 (-7%)	12mo	$110,000	$84	35
4500 Virsalli Loop	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	17mo	$186,012	$151	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,001
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,577
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,532/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $173,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4807 S Main St Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.5	1722	$1,600	$0.93	23d	1	0.34mi
4901 Madison Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	14d	1	0.45mi
5660 Bauer St Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,495	$1.00	23d	1	0.81mi
5536 Gilcrest Sands Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,395	$0.98	23d	1	1.24mi
3717 Damien Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	975	$1,280	$1.31	14d	3	1.29mi
4065 Professional Dr Unit 4065 Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,095	$1.04	23d	1	1.49mi
4065 Professional Dr Hope Mills, NC	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,095	$1.04	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $173,000 Active
3. 2023-11-14
   soldstatus $150,000
4. 2023-11-09
   soldstatus $150,000 Closed 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   Nice manufactured home with it's own foundation located in Hope Mills in the Grays Creek School District. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bath with an open floor plan with a large kitchen island. A country fill while still being close to town. There are 2 out building one that has a lean-to and one that is wired but need to reconnect. There home also features a metal carport and it is handicap accessible.

5. 2023-10-11
   status Pending 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   Nice manufactured home with it's own foundation located in Hope Mills in the Grays Creek School District. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bath with an open floor plan with a large kitchen island. A country fill while still being close to town. There are 2 out building one that has a lean-to and one that is wired but need to reconnect. There home also features a metal carport and it is handicap accessible.

6. 2023-10-06
   listed $160,000 Active 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   Nice manufactured home with it's own foundation located in Hope Mills in the Grays Creek School District. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bath with an open floor plan with a large kitchen island. A country fill while still being close to town. There are 2 out building one that has a lean-to and one that is wired but need to reconnect. There home also features a metal carport and it is handicap accessible.

7. 2018-08-30
   soldstatus $84,500 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   COUNTRY LIVING IN HOPE MILL VERY CLEAN, NICELY KEPT MANUFACTURED HOME ON ITS OWN FOUNDATION. 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH OPEN FLOOR PLAN. KITCHEN HAS KARGE ISLAND, BATHROOMS HAVE UPGRADED ADULT HEIGHT SINKS, LAMINATE FLOORING THRU OUT, 2 STORAGE SHED IN THE BACK PLUS CARPORT AND ITS HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE.

8. 2018-08-30
   soldstatus $84,500

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   COUNTRY LIVING IN HOPE MILL VERY CLEAN, NICELY KEPT MANUFACTURED HOME ON ITS OWN FOUNDATION. 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH OPEN FLOOR PLAN. KITCHEN HAS KARGE ISLAND, BATHROOMS HAVE UPGRADED ADULT HEIGHT SINKS, LAMINATE FLOORING THRU OUT, 2 STORAGE SHED IN THE BACK PLUS CARPORT AND ITS HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE.

9. 2018-07-30
   listed $89,900 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   COUNTRY LIVING IN HOPE MILL VERY CLEAN, NICELY KEPT MANUFACTURED HOME ON ITS OWN FOUNDATION. 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH OPEN FLOOR PLAN. KITCHEN HAS KARGE ISLAND, BATHROOMS HAVE UPGRADED ADULT HEIGHT SINKS, LAMINATE FLOORING THRU OUT, 2 STORAGE SHED IN THE BACK PLUS CARPORT AND ITS HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE.

10. 2017-03-13
    listed $97,900
11. 1996-02-15
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,532 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,532 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$1,532
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable loss: −$997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$239
• After-tax cash flow: $2,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1341.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $173,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-09 Sold (MLS) $150,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-10-11 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2023-10-06 Listed $160,000 LPRMLS
• 2018-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records
• 2018-08-30 Sold (MLS) $84,500 LPRMLS
• 2018-07-30 Listed $89,900 LPRMLS
• 2017-03-13 Listed $97,900 LPRMLS
• 1996-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,532 · +48.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.