4462 Bay View Drive Dr · Estelle, LA 70072

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,515 sqft · SingleFamily · 130 Days on market

Built 2008 Est $261k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRING ALL OFFERS! This is a beautiful home, open floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Many features and has been kept up very nicely. A must see in a beautiful area. Being sold as is.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2008
• Listed 130 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($666/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.6% in Estelle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson Parish (suburban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #44 of 98 in LA (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Congetta Trippe Janet Elementary School (math 29% / reading 43%, grade F, #274 of 646 statewide, top 43%, 648 students, 60% FRL); Harry S Truman School (math 7% / reading 18%, grade F, #546 of 646 statewide, top 85%, 541 students, 78% FRL); John Ehret High School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #169 of 265 statewide, top 64%, 1,579 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 518 units permitted in Jefferson Parish in 2024 (43 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $179k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4462 Bay View Drive Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,515 (0%)	2mo	$203,000	$134	99
4645 Ames Blvd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-1%)	0mo	$300,000	$200	84
2605 Sea Shore Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-4%)	4mo	$270,000	$186	80
2733 Acorn St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-0%)	1mo	$160,000	$106	76
4416 Park Shore Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,611 (+6%)	6mo	$343,000	$213	70
4608 Bayou Des Familles Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-9%)	8mo	$240,500	$175	67
2729 Blanche St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (-1%)	2mo	$244,000	$163	64
4732 Red Oak Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+7%)	4mo	$234,900	$145	59
2720 Bayou Cane Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-14%)	1mo	$224,900	$172	57
4901 Wood Forest Drive Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+5%)	4mo	$265,000	$167	56
2700 Dolores Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-8%)	2mo	$207,000	$148	46
2925 Monica Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+9%)	8mo	$285,000	$173	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-36,801
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-42,784
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70072

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,462/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $119	+0% $55	+5% $-8	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-25	+0% $55	+5% $136	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $113	base $55	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2704 Sieglinde Ct Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,850	$1.65	25d	1	0.16mi
4613 Ames Blvd Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,350	$1.61	45d	1	0.22mi
2748 Erin Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,850	$1.27	25d	1	0.49mi
2544 Jeanne St Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1158	$2,300	$1.99	25d	1	0.67mi
2417 Highland Meadows Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	45d	1	0.91mi
5219 Cross Creek Dr Marrero, LA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	1.14mi
2425 Ramsey Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-12-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-29
   price $225,000 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   BRING ALL OFFERS! This is a beautiful home, open floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Many features and has been kept up very nicely. A must see in a beautiful area. Being sold as is.

3. 2025-11-08
   price $225,000
4. 2025-07-26
   listed $255,000 Active 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   BRING ALL OFFERS! This is a beautiful home, open floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Many features and has been kept up very nicely. A must see in a beautiful area. Being sold as is.

5. 2025-07-26
   listed $255,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   BRING ALL OFFERS! This is a beautiful home, open floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Many features and has been kept up very nicely. A must see in a beautiful area. Being sold as is.

6. 2007-06-05
   soldstatus $179,250
7. 2007-06-04
   listed $179,250
8. 2007-06-04
   listed $179,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,462 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,462 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,462
• − Insurance: −$1,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$746
• After-tax cash flow: $1,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $48,421
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #44 of 98 in LA

Livability — Estelle

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estelle, LA
• County: Jefferson Parish · 426,999 people
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 55,693
• Household income: $54,885
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1807.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 451,696 people
• By 2030: 455,451 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 458,308 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 461,031 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 476,351 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 499,377 · +10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+12.9) · D 42.5% · R 55.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.6pp toward D · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.87%
• Current HPI: 161.7477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+25.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Pending — GSREIN
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $225,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $225,000 GSREIN
• 2025-07-26 Listed $255,000 GSREIN
• 2025-07-26 Listed $255,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-06-05 Sold (MLS) $179,250 GSREIN
• 2007-06-04 Listed $179,250 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-06-04 Listed $179,250 GSREIN

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,462 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.