2011 31st St · Lubbock, TX 79411

$127,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 268 Days on market

Built 1945 10,682 sqft lot $104/sqft · 10% below area ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

Key facts

• Efficiency apartment
• Bonus room
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• CORNER LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• METAL CARPORT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• EFFICIENCY APARTMENT

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $127,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$269,426) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,532 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,426
• List price: $127,000
• Delta: -52.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-27,248
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-35,444
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79411

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,512/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,175

Max offer price $111,697

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$925	$0.66	43d	1	0.04mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$695	$0.50	21d	1	0.04mi
2003 32nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,150	$0.94	43d	1	0.09mi
2119 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.11mi
2103 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1075	$700	$0.65	13d	1	0.14mi
2211 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1293	$1,200	$0.93	43d	1	0.23mi
2201 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1246	$995	$0.80	21d	1	0.24mi
1919 34th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1463	$1,100	$0.75	13d	1	0.25mi
2011 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$800	$0.99	43d	1	0.26mi
2007 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,250	$1.20	43d	1	0.27mi
2115 27th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1148	$875	$0.76	21d	1	0.28mi
2107 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$800	$0.78	43d	1	0.28mi
2208 35th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	767	$750	$0.98	43d	1	0.31mi
1920 27th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1366	$1,500	$1.10	43d	1	0.32mi
2315 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	21d	1	0.33mi
1915 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1221	$1,100	$0.90	43d	1	0.35mi
1724 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$925	$1.09	43d	1	0.36mi
1901 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1142	$950	$0.83	21d	1	0.39mi
2119 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,200	$1.01	43d	1	0.41mi
2123 25th St Unit rear Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	0.41mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	13d	1	0.42mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	43d	1	0.43mi
2411 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	21d	1	0.43mi
1610 28th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$750	$0.71	13d	1	0.46mi
2404 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	948	$699	$0.74	43d	1	0.46mi
2404 Avenue U Unit U Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	948	$925	$0.98	43d	1	0.46mi
2404 27th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1250	$1,349	$1.08	43d	1	0.47mi
2419 31st St Apt B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	878	$795	$0.91	13d	1	0.48mi
2220 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1077	$695	$0.65	21d	1	0.48mi
2420 30th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	21d	1	0.48mi
1609 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	862	$900	$1.04	43d	1	0.49mi
2420 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	21d	1	0.49mi
2311 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	21d	1	0.50mi
2118 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,000	$0.70	21d	1	0.50mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	21d	1	0.52mi
1904 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	43d	1	0.53mi
2404 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,395	$1.08	21d	1	0.55mi
2424 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	873	$1,050	$1.20	21d	1	0.55mi
3104 Avenue N Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$785	$1.05	21d	1	0.57mi
2304 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	830	$1,150	$1.39	21d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-02-26
   price $127,000 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

2. 2026-02-26
   status Active 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

3. 2026-02-26
   historical 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

4. 2025-12-04
   price $134,400 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

5. 2025-11-06
   price $139,400 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

6. 2025-10-21
   price $144,400 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

7. 2025-10-09
   price $149,900 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

8. 2025-09-23
   price $159,500 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

9. 2025-09-10
   price $165,000 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

10. 2025-09-05
    price $175,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

11. 2025-08-25
    price $185,000 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

12. 2025-08-25
    listed $131,500 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath with a large metal carport. Located on a large corner lot this property features real hardwood floors, fenced backyard & a 654 sq ft. efficiency apartment which brings in extra income. It is month to month, but tenant would like to stay. Main house is 1672 sq ft. This can be purchased as package with 2010 31st St.

13. 2005-08-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,512 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,512 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$2,512
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable loss: −$3,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$772
• After-tax cash flow: $-267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,865
• Household income: $47,634
• Rent vs Own: 72.5% rent · 27.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 777.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 39% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.58%
• Current HPI: 210.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $127,000 LARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $134,400 LARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $139,400 LARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $144,400 LARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $149,900 LARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $159,500 LARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $165,000 LARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $175,000 LARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $131,500 LARMLS
• 2005-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,512 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.