406 Horizon Dr · North Fort Myers, FL 33903

$69,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · Condo public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 $835/mo HOA · 49% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 406 Horizon Dr. North Fort Myers, FL in the highly sought after Horizon Village 55+ community. Included in HOA fees are cable TV, Lawn care, mowing, Trash service along with access to the communities full amenities making this opportunity a low-maintenance living. Interior of home has fresh paint, crown molding and a screened in porch.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Full amenities
• 4,094 sq ft lot

Tags

• HORIZON VILLAGE COMMUNITY
• FULL AMENITIES
• SCREENED IN PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed: conditional — contact for details
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (monthly fee); Association fee includes internet, street lights, and trash; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, bocce court, business center, dog park, pool; Non-gated senior community; Approximately 620 units in the community; Association fee: $835 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2 covered carport spaces; Paved driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home with aluminum siding; Single-story; Entry level: 1; Faces west
• Construction: Metal and shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Community pool; Municipal irrigation source; Rectangular lot; East exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Freezer; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Den; Screened porch
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; High speed internet; Single-hung windows with shutters; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-9,849
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-18,314
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33903

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $324/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$835
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,586

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
571 Sunrise Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,400	$1.39	23d	1	0.31mi
3404 Rainbow Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	3d	1	0.65mi
28 Nyborg Ave North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,299	$1.25	14d	1	0.84mi
8791 Littleton Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,549	$1.44	23d	1	0.87mi
2116 NE 25th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,891	$1.40	3d	1	0.91mi
2700 Diplomat Pkwy E Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,382	$2.13	3d	41	1.11mi
2213 NE 33rd St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,800	$1.30	23d	1	1.19mi
3260 Stockton St North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	976	$2,371	$2.43	1d	27	1.33mi
3940 Villa Del Mar CIR Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,116	$2.01	1d	21	1.34mi
13700 Oak St North Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$1,897	$1.85	3d	32	1.35mi
3953 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,462	$1.40	14d	9	1.36mi
3957 Pomodoro Cir #301 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	16d	1	1.37mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	23d	1	1.41mi
3961 Pomodoro Cir #204 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,450	$1.14	16d	1	1.41mi
3944 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	23d	1	1.41mi
1871 Concordia Lake Cir #301 Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,650	$1.12	3d	1	1.41mi
3940 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1270	$1,475	$1.16	3d	2	1.43mi
266 Mongoose Ln #266 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,499	$1.09	3d	1	1.44mi
1757 Concordia Lake Cir #3405 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,450	$1.22	23d	1	1.45mi
2904 Tuscan Dr #303 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$1,450	$0.99	23d	1	1.45mi
1788 Concordia Lake Cir Cape Coral, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1329	$2,250	$1.69	11d	2	1.46mi
2774 Wedgewood Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	23d	1	1.46mi
3968 Pomodoro Cir #202 Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	14d	1	1.48mi
1706 Kismet Pkwy E Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,950	$1.38	14d	1	1.50mi
2909 Tuscan Dr Cape Coral, FL	2.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	23d	2	1.50mi
2309 NE 15th Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,595	$1.28	3d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $835 · $10,020/yr
• Likely covers: trashcablelandscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-15
   remarks 348-char remark
2. 2026-06-15
   listed $69,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $324 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 76.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$324
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − HOA: −$10,020
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$141
• After-tax cash flow: $955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,655
• Household income: $56,993
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.26%
• Current HPI: 256.773
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.94%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $69,000 FORTMLS
• 2006-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $35,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $324 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.