478 W Bowman St · Nogales, AZ 85621

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1973 1,962 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, living room. Guest quarters to the rear of the subject. Looking for that person to make it their home. Property being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 1,962 sq ft lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SCC - MF

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Built-Up roof
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; Paved city-maintained road

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Fixer condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.4% in Nogales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#59 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nogales Unified District (4457) (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #207 of 249 in AZ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Wade Carpenter Middle School (math 7% / reading 15%, grade F, #183 of 218 statewide, top 85%, 576 students, 94% FRL); Nogales High School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #258 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,796 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 55% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $70k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.57%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,860
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
632 N Highland Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,727 (+7%)	15mo	$273,540	$158	58
659 N Goodman St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-10%)	2mo	$204,000	$140	53
131 N Summit Ave	0.58mi	2/1.5	1,676 (+4%)	18mo	$201,900	$120	49
373 W Ellis St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,695 (+5%)	17mo	$140,000	$83	46
321 W Pajarito St	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,453 (-10%)	23mo	$225,000	$155	41
670 N Sonoita Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,814 (+12%)	16mo	$286,000	$158	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $76,167
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.92×
• Total profit: $194,382
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85621

• Home prices YoY: 16.5%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $655/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $571

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $617	+0% $597	+5% $578	+10% $558
Rent	-10% $493	-5% $545	+0% $597	+5% $650	+10% $702
Rate	-1.0pp $633	-0.5pp $615	base $597	+0.5pp $579	+1.0pp $561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $70,000 Active
18. 2020-05-14
    soldstatus $32,000
19. 2020-05-13
    soldstatus $32,000 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Two story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, living room. Guest quarters to the rear of the subject. Looking for that person to make it their home. Property being sold as-is.

20. 2020-01-29
    listed $29,960 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Two story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, living room. Guest quarters to the rear of the subject. Looking for that person to make it their home. Property being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$655
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,539
• After-tax cash flow: $5,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nogales Unified District (4457)
• NCES district ID: 0405530
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $28,293
• Composite: 13.72/100
• National rank: #9494
• State rank: #207 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Nogales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #10055

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,512

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 51% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 91%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.62%
• Current HPI: 385.6724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+133.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $70,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-13 Sold (MLS) $32,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-01-29 Listed $29,960 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $655 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.