315 South 4th · Hawley, TX 79525

$115,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition 7,000 sqft lot $91/sqft · 33% below area Est $172k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a 3 bedroom home with and extra room that can be used as a 4rd bedroom. It has been remodeled with central heat and air. The living room and bedrooms have carpet the kitchen and dining room has vinyl and the kitchen cabinets top is Formica. It comes with a stove and refrigerator. This is a nice house in a small town with a good school system. Make your reservation it is priced to sell quickly.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $116k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.1% in Hawley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#459 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Hawley ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #642 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($801 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Jones County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,469 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.57%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,498
• List price: $115,900
• Delta: -32.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
647 6th St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+7%)	2mo	$225,000	$165	70
631 6th St St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+7%)	3mo	$219,300	$161	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $42,705
• Equity at exit: $72,460

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $118,231
• Equity at exit: $131,060

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79525

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,738/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,014

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $191	+0% $151	+5% $111	+10% $71
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $103	+0% $151	+5% $198	+10% $246
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $180	base $151	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,900 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,900 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,900 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-03-09
    status Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    This is a 3 bedroom home with and extra room that can be used as a 4rd bedroom. It has been remodeled with central heat and air. The living room and bedrooms have carpet the kitchen and dining room has vinyl and the kitchen cabinets top is Formica. It comes with a stove and refrigerator. This is a nice house in a small town with a good school system. Make your reservation it is priced to sell quickly.

19. 2026-02-27
    listed $115,900 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    This is a 3 bedroom home with and extra room that can be used as a 4rd bedroom. It has been remodeled with central heat and air. The living room and bedrooms have carpet the kitchen and dining room has vinyl and the kitchen cabinets top is Formica. It comes with a stove and refrigerator. This is a nice house in a small town with a good school system. Make your reservation it is priced to sell quickly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,738
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable loss: −$39
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $1,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly in the landscaping and kitchen area. Upgrading the kitchen and improving the yard can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — The satellite image shows a large area of bare ground, indicating potential landscaping issues.
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — The Formica countertops may need replacement or refinishing.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve both resale and rental value.
• Resale Kitchen cabinets — Updating the kitchen cabinets can significantly enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · The satellite image shows a large area of bare ground, indicating potential landscaping issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · The Formica countertops may need replacement or refinishing.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen cabinets — Updating the kitchen cabinets can significantly enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822800
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,851
• Composite: 25.06/100
• National rank: #7542
• State rank: #642 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hawley

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #459
• US rank: #9278

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawley, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,926

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,845 people
• By 2030: 20,213 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 21,446 · +8.1%
• By 2050: 22,499 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 23,272 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 20,420 · +2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 4% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.2) · D 13.1% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.1pp · 2024: -73.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.2 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+65.4 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+46.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.95%
• Current HPI: 207.7392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $115,900 NTREIS