6284 Us Highway 421 · Pennington Gap, VA 24277

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1965 0.52 ac lot $61/sqft · 22% below area Est $166k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three Bedroom Home, Living Room, Dining Room with Built In China Cabinets, Large Kitchen/Dining Area (Gas Range, Appliances Included) Screened In Rear Porch, Two Baths, --Walk Out Basement (Partially Finished, Plus Shelved Storage Rooms) Heat Pump, Town Water & Sewer, Workshop, Close to Leeman Field with Easy Access to the Walking Trail!

Key facts

• Living room
• Large kitchen
• Dining room

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• BUILT IN CHINA CABINETS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE
• APPLIANCES INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#410 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.20%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,316
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -21.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
348 Cemetery Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,858 (-13%)	8mo	$230,000	$124	50
200 Doris Ave	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,872 (-13%)	23mo	$180,000	$96	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $46,301
• Equity at exit: $78,339

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $127,621
• Equity at exit: $139,281

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24277

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $580/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $992

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    price $129,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 79 DOM
18. 2026-03-12
    listed $139,000 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Three Bedroom Home, Living Room, Dining Room with Built In China Cabinets, Large Kitchen/Dining Area (Gas Range, Appliances Included) Screened In Rear Porch, Two Baths, --Walk Out Basement (Partially Finished, Plus Shelved Storage Rooms) Heat Pump, Town Water & Sewer, Workshop, Close to Leeman Field with Easy Access to the Walking Trail!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $580 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$486/yr (+$40/mo · 83.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$580
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Pennington Gap

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #17149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pennington Gap, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,379

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Current HPI: 165.997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $139,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $580 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.