1881 Stonechat · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$208,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot Est $204k · at est. $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Beckman- This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-923/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1896 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,140 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1881 Stonechat	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,260 (0%)	1mo	$208,999	$166	99
2657 Lonesome Crk	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+6%)	1mo	$239,990	$180	75
3537 Hilts Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+0%)	2mo	$204,999	$162	70
3522 Hilts Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+0%)	1mo	$189,999	$150	69
3532 Hilts Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+0%)	2mo	$211,999	$167	68
2530 Diamondback Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+6%)	2mo	$239,950	$180	65
2542 Mccrae	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+14%)	3mo	$245,000	$170	58
3525 Hilts Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$201,999	$144	53
3529 Hilts Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$205,999	$147	52
3513 Hilts Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	2mo	$217,999	$155	52
3536 Hilts Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$221,999	$158	52
3514 Hilts Trl	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$200,999	$143	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-43,912
• Equity at exit: $31,162

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-64,421
• Equity at exit: $18,070

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1896
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$261 /mo · $3,135/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,869

Max offer price $197,866

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1881 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,595	$1.27	4d	1	0.04mi
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	43d	1	0.06mi
1941 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,500	$1.23	10d	1	0.14mi
108 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,999	$1.13	1d	1	0.27mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	43d	1	0.31mi
3931 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,861	$1.10	43d	1	0.32mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	4d	1	0.32mi
1201 Legend Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	43d	1	0.32mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	43d	1	0.33mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	1d	1	0.33mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	23d	1	0.35mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	4d	1	0.38mi
4044 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	0.39mi
2808 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	14d	1	0.41mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	16d	1	0.46mi
2564 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	4d	1	0.52mi
2737 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	14d	1	0.52mi
2562 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	4d	1	0.53mi
2575 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,499	$1.09	43d	1	0.53mi
1490 W Klein Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	43d	1	0.63mi
3514 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	17d	1	0.67mi
3307 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	14d	1	0.67mi
1906 Fieldfare New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	23d	1	0.75mi
2842 Ridge Berry Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,300	$1.45	23d	1	0.76mi
901 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.5	1525	$1,847	$1.21	1d	131	0.77mi
4211 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	43d	1	0.77mi
905 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	43d	1	0.79mi
907 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1785	$1,775	$0.99	23d	1	0.79mi
3230 Mound Rdg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,595	$1.14	43d	1	0.82mi
4238 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,795	$1.07	43d	1	0.83mi
4262 Winston Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,700	$1.14	43d	1	0.83mi
1915 Chiffchaff New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,650	$1.36	23d	1	0.84mi
1320 Atticus Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1702	$2,000	$1.18	43d	1	0.84mi
1211 Foxglove St New Braunfels, TX	2.0	1.0	1329	$1,525	$1.15	23d	1	0.87mi
957 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,685	$1.15	23d	1	0.91mi
1422 Copperleaf Ct New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	43d	1	0.93mi
1973 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,750	$1.20	16d	1	0.96mi
1041 Lauren St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	23d	1	0.97mi
1972 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,795	$1.15	43d	1	0.99mi
1911 Kallijo Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	16d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $208,999
3. 2026-04-02
   price $211,999
4. 2026-03-31
   price $213,999
5. 2026-03-27
   listed $224,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,135
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$4,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,079
• After-tax cash flow: $156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and functionality, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Braunfels ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,945
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #2931
• State rank: #157 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $208,999 LERA
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $211,999 LERA
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $213,999 LERA
• 2026-03-27 Listed $224,999 LERA