20745 Deuster Ln · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2010 0.92 ac lot Est $269k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional investment opportunity in the rapidly growing Porter area! Situated on a generous 40,075-square-foot lot, this property is located in a thriving corridor surrounded by new residential and commercial development, offering outstanding long-term potential. With no restrictions and endless possibilities, this property is ideal for investors, builders, or anyone seeking a redevelopment opportunity. The existing home requires renovation, making it a perfect fixer-upper, rental project, or teardown for new construction. The expansive lot provides ample room to build, expand, or create a custom project tailored to your vision. Whether you're looking to renovate, redevelop, or hold for f

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Built 2010
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($524/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Middle (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 834 students, 75% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 57% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 955 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,030 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,840
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21015 Voyage Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,952 (+4%)	6mo	$249,900	$128	53
21022 Voyage Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,952 (+4%)	6mo	$259,900	$133	52
21019 Voyage Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (-11%)	6mo	$234,900	$140	41
21014 Voyage Ln	0.63mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (-11%)	6mo	$239,900	$143	41
20521 Lakeside Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (+9%)	12mo	$250,000	$122	37
20290 Youpon Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (-14%)	2mo	$299,000	$185	37
21002 Voyage Ln	0.63mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (-11%)	12mo	$257,900	$154	36
20561 Lakeside Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,749 (-7%)	20mo	$275,000	$157	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,865
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,749
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 955
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,214/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $100	+0% $44	+5% $-13	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-28	+0% $44	+5% $116	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $94	base $44	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16658 Moss Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	26d	1	0.60mi
21019 Voyage Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	1678	$1,795	$1.07	45d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $199,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $199,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,214 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,214
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$671
• After-tax cash flow: $1,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Porter Heights, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $199,000 HARMLS
• 2006-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,214 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.