434 Bartholomew Way · Crosby, TX 77532

$99,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 160 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition $68/sqft · 27% below area Est $137k · 27% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * Tax Season Clearance Sale!!! 4 bedrooms for under $120k!!! Welcome to Piney Woods. Spacious, functional, affordable, and loaded with quality features, the "Oak" will exceed all your wants and needs in a new home. This modern floor plan has four bedrooms and two full bathrooms in 1,475 square feet of comfortable living space. Open living is the key to the function and flow of the kitchen, living, and dining areas, as well as immediate access to one of the full bathrooms in this communal part of the home. And a dedicated laundry room adds to the functionality and value of the "Oak. " Taking care of your new Thrill home will be low maintenance thanks to quality finishes like linoleum flooring, laminate counters. Added energy efficiency from thermal pane windows, a smart thermostat, and insulation will keep you comfortable year-round and not to mention save big on heating and cooling costs. As you envision living in this cost-effective home with features to create your dream home. Features like a dish washer, upgraded sliding glass door, and quality Energy Star.

Key facts

• Modern floor plan
• Energy star
• Quality finishes

Tags

• MODERN FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• QUALITY FINISHES
• THERMAL PANE WINDOWS
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• ENERGY STAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.54%
• DSCR: 2.98
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,956
• List price: $99,999
• Delta: -26.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $46,721
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $112,918
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $1,039

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,999 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,999 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,999 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,999 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,999 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    price $99,999 1104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1104 chars)

    * * * Tax Season Clearance Sale!!! 4 bedrooms for under $120k!!! Welcome to Piney Woods. Spacious, functional, affordable, and loaded with quality features, the "Oak" will exceed all your wants and needs in a new home. This modern floor plan has four bedrooms and two full bathrooms in 1,475 square feet of comfortable living space. Open living is the key to the function and flow of the kitchen, living, and dining areas, as well as immediate access to one of the full bathrooms in this communal part of the home. And a dedicated laundry room adds to the functionality and value of the "Oak. " Taking care of your new Thrill home will be low maintenance thanks to quality finishes like linoleum flooring, laminate counters. Added energy efficiency from thermal pane windows, a smart thermostat, and insulation will keep you comfortable year-round and not to mention save big on heating and cooling costs. As you envision living in this cost-effective home with features to create your dream home. Features like a dish washer, upgraded sliding glass door, and quality Energy Star.

14. 2026-01-20
    price $113,637 1104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1104 chars)

    * * * Tax Season Clearance Sale!!! 4 bedrooms for under $120k!!! Welcome to Piney Woods. Spacious, functional, affordable, and loaded with quality features, the "Oak" will exceed all your wants and needs in a new home. This modern floor plan has four bedrooms and two full bathrooms in 1,475 square feet of comfortable living space. Open living is the key to the function and flow of the kitchen, living, and dining areas, as well as immediate access to one of the full bathrooms in this communal part of the home. And a dedicated laundry room adds to the functionality and value of the "Oak. " Taking care of your new Thrill home will be low maintenance thanks to quality finishes like linoleum flooring, laminate counters. Added energy efficiency from thermal pane windows, a smart thermostat, and insulation will keep you comfortable year-round and not to mention save big on heating and cooling costs. As you envision living in this cost-effective home with features to create your dream home. Features like a dish washer, upgraded sliding glass door, and quality Energy Star.

15. 2026-01-09
    listed $115,997 Active 1104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1104 chars)

    * * * Tax Season Clearance Sale!!! 4 bedrooms for under $120k!!! Welcome to Piney Woods. Spacious, functional, affordable, and loaded with quality features, the "Oak" will exceed all your wants and needs in a new home. This modern floor plan has four bedrooms and two full bathrooms in 1,475 square feet of comfortable living space. Open living is the key to the function and flow of the kitchen, living, and dining areas, as well as immediate access to one of the full bathrooms in this communal part of the home. And a dedicated laundry room adds to the functionality and value of the "Oak. " Taking care of your new Thrill home will be low maintenance thanks to quality finishes like linoleum flooring, laminate counters. Added energy efficiency from thermal pane windows, a smart thermostat, and insulation will keep you comfortable year-round and not to mention save big on heating and cooling costs. As you envision living in this cost-effective home with features to create your dream home. Features like a dish washer, upgraded sliding glass door, and quality Energy Star.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $11,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,776
• After-tax cash flow: $9,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, foundation, landscaping, and HVAC/mechanical systems. Improvements in these areas will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is visibly damaged and in poor condition.
• Major foundation — The foundation appears to be in poor condition, with visible damage and overgrown vegetation around it.
• Major landscaping — The surrounding area is overgrown with grass and weeds, indicating poor landscaping and curb appeal. This needs to be addressed to improve the home's appearance and value.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No specific damage is visible in the photos, but the unit appears to be a manufactured home, which typically requires regular maintenance of the HVAC and mechanical systems. This needs to be addressed to ensure the home is functional and energy-efficient.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the home's appearance and potentially increase its resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Ensuring the HVAC and mechanical systems are in good condition will improve the home's functionality and energy efficiency, which can increase its resale and rental value.
• Both exterior siding and foundation repairs — Repairing the exterior siding and foundation will improve the home's structural integrity and appearance, which can increase its resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · The exterior siding is visibly damaged and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · The foundation appears to be in poor condition, with visible damage and overgrown vegetation around it.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The surrounding area is overgrown with grass and weeds, indicating poor landscaping and curb appeal. This needs to be addressed to improve the home's appearance and value.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No specific damage is visible in the photos, but the unit appears to be a manufactured home, which typically requires regular maintenance of the HVAC and mechanical systems. This needs to be addressed to ensure the home is functional and energy-efficient.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the home's appearance and potentially increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Ensuring the HVAC and mechanical systems are in good condition will improve the home's functionality and energy efficiency, which can increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both exterior siding and foundation repairs — Repairing the exterior siding and foundation will improve the home's structural integrity and appearance, which can increase its resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $99,999 Zillow
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $113,637 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Listed $115,997 Zillow