5540 17th Pl · Lubbock, TX 79416

$118,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,291 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1964 6,710 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,710 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Publicly maintained road access via city street
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built area approximately 1,291 above-grade
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free‑standing range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hardwick El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 574 students, 81% FRL); Mackenzie Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 515 students, 88% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,230 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.87%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,912
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $15,328
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,732/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,134

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $305	+0% $272	+5% $238	+10% $205
Rent	-10% $155	-5% $213	+0% $272	+5% $330	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $302	base $272	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5540 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,350	$1.08	22d	1	0.06mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	22d	1	0.13mi
5519 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,200	$0.95	44d	1	0.13mi
5518 16th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,700	$1.04	14d	1	0.16mi
5603 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,000	$1.28	14d	1	0.22mi
5522 13th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	14d	1	0.38mi
5503 10th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,500	$1.14	22d	1	0.49mi
5402 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1234	$1,050	$0.85	44d	1	0.53mi
5501 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,800	$0.96	22d	1	0.55mi
5230 14th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,350	$0.93	14d	1	0.59mi
5221 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,450	$0.98	14d	1	0.59mi
5407 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,150	$0.95	14d	1	0.63mi
5216 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$1,695	$0.92	44d	1	0.65mi
5833 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,125	$0.97	22d	1	0.74mi
5818 8th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$995	$0.99	44d	1	0.75mi
601 Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1570	$1,400	$0.89	22d	1	0.75mi
5839 7th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,050	$0.91	44d	1	0.76mi
2102 W Loop 289 Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	702	$890	$1.27	44d	1	0.77mi
5834 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,125	$0.94	22d	1	0.77mi
5846 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,145	$0.99	22d	1	0.79mi
6106 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	44d	1	0.81mi
5435 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,400	$1.17	22d	1	0.82mi
2702 Frankford Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	940	$888	$0.94	44d	1	0.84mi
6040 24th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1699	$1,600	$0.94	44d	1	0.84mi
6040 24th St Unit 33 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,600	$0.89	22d	1	0.85mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1700	$1,729	$1.02	44d	1	0.85mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,729	$1.02	22d	1	0.85mi
6040 24th St Apt 25 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$1,700	$0.95	22d	1	0.87mi
6040 24th St Unit 16 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1600	$1,699	$1.06	14d	1	0.87mi
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,650	$0.92	44d	1	0.87mi
6040 24th St Apt 25 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	0.87mi
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1795	$1,799	$1.00	22d	1	0.87mi
5863 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,325	$1.19	22d	1	0.87mi
5424 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,150	$0.95	44d	1	0.88mi
1107 Ironton Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	44d	1	0.88mi
5442 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,349	$1.05	14d	1	0.88mi
5414 6th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,299	$1.07	44d	1	0.91mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,350	$1.10	44d	1	0.91mi
6112 7th Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,375	$1.12	22d	1	0.91mi
6106 9th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1361	$1,350	$0.99	44d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $118,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $118,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $118,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $118,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $118,000 Active
18. 1989-10-01
    soldstatus
19. 1986-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,732 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,732 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$2,732
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,419
• − Management: −$1,419
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $1,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$367
• After-tax cash flow: $2,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $118,000 LARMLS
• 1989-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,732 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.